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Regarding the intention to vote, 63% of respondents said they would “sure” vote. 22% said that “in principle” they would vote, while 9% still did not know whether or not they would. 1% confessed that they had no intention of voting, while 5% said that they “certainly would not vote.”
CESOP-Universidade Católica used 1,315 surveys, with a margin of error of 2.7%, with a confidence level of 95%.
A distance of seven points separates PS and PSD in the survey conducted by the Catholic University between December 4 and 11. The PS is ahead in estimating electoral results, with 37%. PSD would win 30%.
Taking into account the margin of error of the survey – 2.7% – the minimum and maximum intervals of the two parts would be close. The PS would be in the range between 40 and 34%, while the PSD range would be between 33 and 27%.
In the 2019 elections, the PS had obtained 36.34% of the votes and the PSD 27.76%. The distance between the parties narrows in this poll of the Catholic.
In the electoral results estimates of the Catholic University survey, there are then the Left Bloc and the CDU, with 7% each. The PCP had obtained 6.33% of the votes in the elections and BE had obtained 9.52% of the votes in the elections. El Bloque is the party that has fallen the most in the results of this survey, compared to 2019.
The far-right party Chega is the one that rises the most in this poll compared to the last elections. It would win 6% of the votes, while the Liberal Initiative reached 5%. Both parties obtained 1.29% of the vote in 2019 and both have a deputy in parliament at the moment.
Only then does the CDS-PP appear, with 3% of the votes. In the elections it had reached 4.22%.
The PAN would obtain 3% of the votes, approximately the same as it obtained at the polls (3.32% in 2019).
The estimates of the electoral results are obtained by calculating the percentage of direct voting intentions in each party in relation to the total valid votes (excluding abstentions and non-responses) and redistributing the undecided ones based on a second question on voting intention. Only the voting intentions and inclinations of respondents who say they are sure they will vote are considered, that is, 828 of the 1,315 respondents. These estimates are only indicative, given that different assumptions can generate different results, warns the Catholic University.
The direct intention to vote is 24% in PS, 18% in PSD, 4% in BE, 4% in CDU, 4% in Chega, 3% in IL, 2% in CDS-PP and 2% in PAN.
The undecided percentage is significant. There is 25% of those surveyed who say they “don’t know” who they would vote for.
6% of those surveyed said they “did not vote”, another 6% refused to answer the question. In the category “others / blank / null vote”, enter 3% of the respondents.
The direct intention to vote data is weighted according to the distribution of the population by sex, age groups, region and vote in the 2019 legislature.
2019 CDS voters are now undecided
If we analyze the distribution of voting intentions, we highlight that 42% of the respondents who voted for the CDS-PP in the 2019 legislatures stated that they “do not know” who to vote for if the elections were now. Only 34% would vote for the party again.
80% of those who voted for the CDU in 2019 would continue to vote in the coalition between the PCP and “Os Verdes”.
Among those who voted for the PS, 69% would maintain their intention to vote now for the Socialists. 19% confessed “not knowing who to vote for”.
61% of those who voted for the PSD in the 2019 elections would continue to vote for the party now. 19% said they were undecided.
BE’s “loyalty” is 58%, the percentage of voters who chose the blockers in 2019 and said they would do so again now.
In the case of PAN, 67% of voters in 2019 would fly again for the People-Animals-Nature party.
In the case of Chega and Liberal Initiative, the percentage of those who would vote for these parties again is 73%.
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Data sheet
This survey was carried out by CESOP – Universidade Católica Portuguesa for RTP and Public between December 4 and 11, 2020. The target universe is made up of voters residing in Portugal. Respondents were randomly selected from a list of mobile and landline numbers, also generated at random. All interviews were conducted by telephone (CATI). Respondents were informed of the purpose of the study and demonstrated their willingness to participate. 1,315 valid surveys were obtained, with 48% of the respondents women, 30% from the North, 20% from the Center, 36% from AMdeLisboa, 6% from Alentejo, 4% from Algarve, 2% from Madeira and 2% of the Azores. Next, all the results obtained were weighted according to the distribution of the population by sex, age groups and region based on the electoral census and estimates from the INE. The response rate was 34%. The maximum margin of error associated with a random sample of 1,315 respondents is 2.7%, with a confidence level of 95%.
