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Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump has risen to a record 17 points as the race enters a final phase, according to an Opinion Research poll for The Guardian.
According to the poll, about 57% of potential voters intend to vote for Biden, while only 40% say they will vote for the current president, Trump. The 17 point difference is even larger than the 57% margin to 41% (16 points) that CNN advanced earlier this month, as reported by Executive Digest.
With just three weeks left until Election Day, and after millions of votes have been expressly known, some Republicans fear defeat in the race for the presidency, the Senate and the House of Representatives. Ed Rollins, an adviser to Trump’s super political action committee, told the New York Times: “The political environment is terrible. It is a difficult battle.
Opinium’s findings suggest that the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Trump’s disastrous performance in the debate, and a coronavirus outbreak in the White House that infected the president himself, tossed the pendulum decisively in favor. of the Democrats.
Biden has gained five percentage points among undecided voters since September. Democrats have also given a boost to existing supporters, with Biden’s voters now rising from 75% in September to 82% in October.
The former vice president now leads the sectors of health, race relations, employment and even the economy (45% to 43%), generally seen as Trump’s signature. The current president’s reputation as a successful businessman has been affected by a New York Times investigation into his tax affairs.
The poll also exposes some important differences from the 2016 election, when Trump defeated Hillary Clinton. The president again has a negative approval rating of -11%, and two out of five (42%) strongly disapprove of the way he is dealing with the presidency. However, Biden now has a strong positive approval rating of + 18%, with more than half (52%) of voters approving of the way he ran the campaign.
Opinium was attended by 2,003 North American adults aged 18 and over, from October 8 to 12. The survey was conducted online taking into account the level of education and the previous votes in the last elections.
Nearly two in three (62%) of former Trump voters (who voted for him in 2016 but won’t this year) say that his way of dealing with the coronavirus pandemic is the reason they changed their vote. Furthermore, nearly half (47%) of former Trump voters say their personality and behavior contributed to the change.
Democrats say a massive victory is the surest way to avoid lengthy legal disputes that can even result in street violence. Trump spent months trying to undermine the credibility of the election in general and the mail-order vote in particular.
Opinium found that Biden’s leadership depends on the success of the mail-in vote, which is likely to hit record levels during the pandemic. About 55% of in-person voters intend to vote for Trump, while 42% intend to vote for Biden. But when it comes to mail-in voters, 75% intend to vote for Biden and only 22% intend to vote for Trump.
As a result, the United States may witness the so-called “red mirage” in which Trump appears to be ahead based on initial in-person vote tally, only to be overtaken by Biden’s vote by mail hours or days later. Only 30% of voters expect to know who the winner is on election night.
It is feared that Trump will use this time to spread conspiracy theories and declare victory. Half (50%) of voters fear that if the president loses the election, he will not give it to his rival. There is a partisan divide: Two-thirds (66%) of Trump voters are concerned the election will be cheated.
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