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“Angola faces increasing default risk due to high debt payments and heavy dependence on oil revenues, even after receiving the third section the financial assistance program of the IMF“, for a total amount of US $ 3.7 billion (3.4 billion euros), says the EXX Africa in an analysis of the Angolan economy.
In the document, sent to clients and to which Lusa had access, analysts led by Robert Besseling write that “the cost of debt service is expected to rise, even though it already represents 56.8% of the budget, and the public debt should have remained at 111% of the debt GDP late last year, in part because of currency depreciation. “
The problem, analysts emphasize, “is that debt indicators will remain high in a context where oil prices will remain at minimum levels.”
So, they warn, “Angola can join the wave of Predetermined values Financial [‘default’, no original em inglês] sovereigns this year unless loans are restructured or ‘forgiven.’ “
The cost of process Angolan debt due to November 2025 increased to almost 30% in late March, when at the beginning of this month it was 7%, remember the EXX Africa and during April it has always been above 20%, according to figures presented by the financial information agency Bloomberg.
In the document, analysts still leave a note of optimism I devote to impulse reformist shown by stream Government: “There is some potential for desperately needed economic reforms to be implemented in response to the economic crisis, despite some of the changes required by IMFAs new spending cuts, they are now suspended due to the pandemic“
However, they conclude, the IMF “will insist that the privatizations and investment-friendly reforms continue, so the sale of goods of Sonangol It will be essential, because any sign that the government wants to reverse the reforms or align with the elite to benefit the most influential will cancel much of the economic gains of the Fund’s program.
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