Coronavirus advance, statistical alerts and risks for old age | Estela Benetti



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In intensive work to overcome the challenges of one of the epicenters of the pandemic in Brazil, the São Paulo authorities have insisted that people stay at home. They claim that 60% of social isolation would be necessary to reopen the economy and not the 46% registered in recent weeks. Will the cities of Santa Catarina that have resumed most activities in a few weeks have problems similar to those of São Paulo, such as saturation of the health system?

In a conference at the Federation of State Trade Associations (Facisc) on Thursday (04/30), the Commander General of the State Military Police, Colonel Araújo Gomes, reported that, through electronic monitoring, the social isolation of the State it stood at 46.05% the day before, Wednesday (04/29). This meant a fall of 12.64% compared to the beginning of the week. Each percentage point represents 70 thousand people. Then, there was an increase of 885,000 people away from home for more than three hours in one day. This 46% percentage has been repeated for other days. Since the use of masks is not yet complete in the state, the risks of contagion remain high.

Statistical alerts

On April 15, Santa Catarina had 884 confirmed coronavirus cases and 97 hospitalized in the ICU, which averaged almost 11% of hospitalizations. The data for this Friday, May 1 are 2,104 infected and 66 ICU patients, an average of 4.8%. The state grew 138% in the number of cases in approximately 15 days. Many people have recently been infected. If we consider the recent survey of the Federal University of Pelotas, which indicated an underreporting of up to 12% in Rio Grande do Sul, with a similar evolution, Santa Catarina would already have around 25 thousand people who had contact with the virus.

The state has 421 beds reserved for Covid-19 and the occupancy is 15.9%. Considering the progress of the disease in other states and countries, what guarantees that this greater spread of recent cases in SC will not saturate the local health system? There is a lack of clearer scientific explanations from the government about this evolution risk.

There is also a lack of awareness among the population about care. Of course, we have many people who need to work and who need to seek government help from Caixa. But what we saw in the images are people of the middle class, of the third age, who circulate. This group could request the support of young people to make purchases.

Risks to old age

It is necessary to reinforce the care of the elderly. In Brazil, deaths of people 60 years of age and over exceed 70%. It is a similar percentage to that of Germany, a country that has one of the best health systems in the world and is doing a large number of tests. Santa Catarina journalist Larissa Linder, who was our colleague at the NSC and is doing an internship in Germany, reported (according to data from last Tuesday) that 67% of all people infected with Covid-19 in the country have between 15 and 59 years old and 19% are people aged 70 or over. However, 87% of deaths were from people age 70 and older.

This is a warning that the greater circulation of people now in Santa Catarina does not translate into less attention to the elderly. They must remain strict and these people should avoid leaving their home as much as possible.

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