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Rather than looking back, it was a conversation to project the future of post-pandemic national politics. And Luís Marques Mendes marks the horizon in 2023 to identify what may be the “most decisive” milestone of these years. There are legislatures on the calendar, but it is not the elections themselves that the commentator and former Social Democratic leader refers to, it is the possibility that this is the time for António Costa to leave the scene. An event that “can change the trajectory of Portuguese political life from top to bottom”.
“This is a taboo that exists there, but it should not be a taboo, this matter should be discussed openly. There is an enormous degree of probability that António Costa will leave the stage as leader of the PS in 2023 and give way to another one”, says the lawyer and political commentator What, if it materializes, will be a moment of fragility for the socialists and “an opportunity for the right” – “The PS is something with António Costa, who is an asset, and something else without him. It does not have the same value without António Costa.”
And this scenario can be combined with another – an eventual return of Pedro Passos Coelho -, addressed by Marques Mendes and António Costa Pinto in the debate held on Monday and moderated by the director of the Daily News, Rosália Amorim, to talk about national political life one year after the start of the pandemic.
With the municipalities scheduled for the end of the year, this will be an important moment to define what is to come next. António Costa Pinto defends that, more than for the PS, the municipalities will be decisive for the stability of the PSD. The same is to say that the party leader, Rui Rio, plays the future on the ballot scheduled for the end of this year: “The internal turbulence in the PSD will come immediately, at a time of bad electoral results.” And, in this scenario, Passos Coelho may represent a novelty for the opposition to the PS. For the political scientist it will be, in fact, a novelty greater than the “predictable” departure of António Costa.
For Marques Mendes, the possible return of Pedro Passos Coelho is another turning point for the foreseeable future. “To return or not to return will make a difference from the point of view of the PSD and the center-right in general”, says the former Social Democratic leader. “I do not know if he will return or if he will not return, probably not even he knows it at this point,” said Marques Mendes, pointing to a possible return within a year, after the municipal elections.
But, for now, Mendes says that Rui Rio started the process of choosing candidates for municipal councils well, presenting Carlos Moedas to face the socialist Fernando Medina in Lisbon. António Costa Pinto also speaks of a positive signal, but underlines that Moedas has a challenge ahead, given that the Lisbon elections have gained a strong local component over the years, to which the Social Democrat has to respond.
CDS at risk of disappearing
Still on the right, the two actors admitted the scene of the disappearance of the CDS from the political map. “There is a serious risk, you can see it in the polls,” Mendes said, noting that the governance of the right – which was not unscathed in the 2019 elections and the arrival of Chega and the Liberal Initiative – will be even more difficult without the centrists . Along the same lines, Costa Pinto defended that one of the main actors in the survival of the CDS is … PSD: “I would even say that if you were a PSD leader, you would be very interested in the survival of the CDS.Mendes continued and pointed to the left: “I usually say that, if it could, the PSD would lend some deputies to the PS so that they would not die, just like the PS, in the municipalities, it would give the PCP some kissed hands to prevent the decline of the party in the Alentejo “.
The government should stay until 2023
Costa Pinto and Marques Mendes converged on the expectation that there will be no political – or institutional – crisis on the horizon close to national political life. “In one way or another, the different political parties are not interested in a crisis that precedes the elections. Parties, government, President of the Republic: I would say that they are not interested in early elections. It is very likely that this government will reach the end of the legislature“predicts the researcher at the Institute of Social Sciences of the University of Lisbon.
For Marques Mendes, neither the executive nor the general opposition are interested in going to the elections earlier. The PS because now it will not achieve the absolute majority that it did not achieve under more favorable conditions in 2019. The opposition because it has very little to gain from the anticipation of the legislatures. “If there are early elections, there is only one party that really benefits from that, and that is Chega. So, only if everyone else is suicidal.” says Marques Mendes, who anticipates that the next State Budget will be approved along similar lines to the previous one, which gives the PCP a decisive role. The only scenario that could change this prediction that political life will continue its normal course would be an “electoral catastrophe” of the PS in the municipalities, similar to what happened in the time of António Guterres, but Marques Mendes considers it highly unlikely, although betting on a loss of chambers of the Socialists, taking into account the good result they achieved in the last local elections.
Another improbability is that of an institutional crisis between the palaces of Belém and São Bento. “I think there is a disharmony here or there, but a crisis is not likely to occur.”, Vatican António Costa Pinto. “It is not in the interest of the country to have a political or institutional crisis,” corroborates Marques Mendes, who emphasizes that, even after the pandemic ends, the economic and social crisis will continue. “After the moratoriums, the anesthesia wears off, the pain will be felt more.”
PS and PSD “should be ashamed”
Another issue that went through the debate were the changes to the municipal electoral law approved by the PS and the PSD, which make it difficult for independent candidates to run in local elections, requiring, for example, different signatures for the lists of the municipal executive, the municipal assembly and the parish councils. Modifications approved at the end of the last legislature and which the Ombudsman has now referred to the Constitutional Court.
Marques Mendes spared no words: “This law is a blow to the PS and PSD, it was almost a political blow, something unspeakable, unacceptable. They should be ashamed.” A law to “combat independent movements”, plus another measure that the PS and PSD should be ashamed of: End of the fortnightly debates in Parliament, which Costa Pinto also describes as “a stain on the transparency” of political institutions. And if the Socialists have already announced a project that alters the most contentious points, Mendes wants to see it to believe it. “I still have the biggest doubts about whether the correction will be real or false.”
