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The popularity of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is superlative compared to the opponents he will face in the presidential elections next Sunday. According to an Aximage survey for DN, JN and TSF in which the adherence of the electorate to the characters and their policies is evaluated, two thirds of the Portuguese (66%) like the President of the Republic and what he defends. At the other extreme is André Ventura: two thirds of those surveyed (65%) do not like either the personality or the ideas of the leader of the radical right.
The scope of the current president and reelaborator clearly goes beyond the projection of electoral results that has been attributed to him in the different polls, be they those of Aximage, or those that have been published in other media. In fact, when only liking the character is measured (regardless of policies), Marcelo reaches 83% adherence. 35 percentage points more than Vitorino Silva (Tino de Rans), who is the only rival of the current president who does not have a negative starting point.
In the five remaining candidates, the statistical base, that is, the answer most chosen by those surveyed, points to a double rejection (I don’t like the candidate or his policies): it fluctuates between 32% of Ana Gomes and 65% of André Ventura. In the case of liberal competitor Tiago Mayan, there is another setback: 39% either do not know or do not respond, which reveals a deficit of notoriety. The communist João Ferreira has a similar problem, although a little less acute (32%). On the contrary, Marcelo and Ventura leave almost no one indifferent, for good and bad reasons, respectively.
Personality counts more
One of the conclusions of the analysis of the results of this barometer is that the personality of the candidates always obtains a greater adherence than their policies. When the sum of the different portions is added, the percentage of those who like a candidate, regardless of the policies, is always greater than the percentage of those who like the policies, regardless of their personal qualities. But there are some differences.
Where the weight of the character over the ideas is most evident is in Vitorino Silva: there is a difference of 28 percentage points in favor of the attractiveness of the figure. Where the importance of personal charisma has less weight is in André Ventura: they are only 2% more when comparing the importance of the leader with what he defends. Another candidate who stands out for sticking to character, rather than politics, is the blocker Marisa Matias.
Even when analyzing the different segments into which the sample is divided (gender, age groups, social class and region), personality prevails over ideas. With two notable exceptions, both among the youngest (18 to 34 years), for Ana Gomes and André Ventura, in which there is a higher proportion of voters to adhere to the policies, regardless of character, than to adhere to the figure, to despite the one they defend.
Socialists with Marcelo
When a cross is made between the vote in the legislatures and the evaluation of candidates, it is confirmed, once again, that Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is in plenary session in the so-called central bloc. He is also more popular among Socialists than among Social Democrats: 80% of those who vote for the PS like the character and his policies, compared to 74% who vote for the PSD. Only among the Chega electorate does the current president have a negative starting point.
Among the remaining candidates, the rule is that the party origin of each party makes the difference, even in the case of the socialist Ana Gomes, who is the only one who does not have the explicit support of her party (44% of those who vote by the PS as the character and policies). The former MEP also achieves very similar membership values in the parties on her left (Bloco and CDU). The communist João Ferreira practically completes the electorate of the CDU, a little better than Marisa Matias in the Bloco de Esquerda. However, the blockade has a better poster among the socialist electorate in terms of personality but also in terms of politics.
On the right, André Ventura relies mainly on the electorate of his Chega, although there is a reasonable proportion of party voters who appreciate the policies, but not the leader. Among the remaining segments of the party, the rejection is very high (always above 60%). But it is worth noting the relative complacency of a part of the Social Democratic electorate: 15% like politics and the leader of the radical right; 28% like the character, regardless of the policies; and 23% adhere to the ideas, although they do not appreciate the figure.
