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According to the responses of more than two thousand respondents in the study of the Catholic University, the PS concentrates 39% of the electorate’s preference, followed by PSD (28%), Basta (8%), BE (7%), CDU (6%), IL (5%) and CDS-PP and PAN (both with 2%).
It should be noted, from the outset, that 15 months of governance – and part of that period in a time of pandemic crisis – did not wear down the socialist government of António Costa, who on the contrary managed to cement his leadership in Parliament with a promotion (from 36 , 34% to 39%) in the intention to vote in relation to the results of the Legislatures of 2019. Also noteworthy is the increase of more than four percentage points for Chega (from 3.32 to 8%) and IL (from 1.29 to 5%).
On the contrary, with falls of more than two points, the CDS-PP (from 4.22 to 2%) and the BE (from 9.52 to 7%) are presented in this survey. The CDU also shows a loss, although slight (from 6.33 to 6%). With a residual electorate gain, the Social Democrats rose from 27.8 to 28%, remaining the second Portuguese political force.The Liberal Initiative and Chega steal votes from the PSD
In the war for right-wing voters, André Ventura’s party would seek a huge sum of votes from the PSD. Of the respondents “who now claim to be potential voters ARRIVE, 33% had voted PSD in 2019.”
The IL “theft” from the Social Democrats is even greater, with the Liberals withdrawing 36% of PSD voters from the last legislatures.
The Portuguese maintain confidence in the Government
Asked about the “most likely thing that will happen to the current government: to fulfill the mandate until the end or fall before the end of the mandate”, the respondents answered by a large majority (87%) that the socialist executive “will fulfill the mandate until the end”. Only 7% point to a drop “before the end of the quarter.”
However, it is a vote of confidence that comes with a trap: the majority of the Portuguese consider it urgent to remodel several key ministries in António Costa’s government scheme.
61% of those surveyed answered affirmatively to the question about the “need for the Prime Minister to reshape the Government by replacing some ministers”, compared to only 24% who consider that it is not necessary for António Costa to go down that path.
This is a reorganization that (of that 61%) 39% consider that it should take place before the end of the Portuguese presidency of the European Union (January-June 2021), while 18% see nothing wrong in waiting for the summer to replace the heads of some ministries.
And some of António Costa’s ministers already have the fingers of the voters indicated: the Minister of Justice, Francisca Van Dunem, is the most attacked (27%), followed by the Minister of Internal Administration, Eduardo Cabrita (24%), the Minister of Health, Marta Temido (11%) and the Minister of Education, Tiago Brandão Rodrigues (5%).
CESOP highlights here that in this open question “all ministers had at least one respondent to indicate their name (or position)”.
Data sheet
This survey was conducted by CESOP – Universidade Católica Portuguesa for RTP and Public between January 11 and 14, 2021. The target universe is made up of voters residing in Portugal. Respondents were randomly selected from a list of mobile phone numbers, also generated at random. All interviews were conducted by telephone (CATI). Respondents were informed of the purpose of the study and demonstrated their willingness to participate. Valid surveys were obtained in 2001, with 46% of respondents women, 29% from the north, 20% from the center, 38% from the AM of Lisbon, 6% from the Alentejo, 4% from the Algarve, the 2% from Madeira and 2% from the Azores. . Next, all the results obtained were weighted according to the distribution of the population by sex, age groups, region and legislative vote in 2019. The response rate was 44%. The maximum margin of error associated with a random sample of respondents from 2001 is 2.2%, with a confidence level of 95%.
