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The pressure grew throughout the day and the decision was made at night, in a meeting of António Costa with the ministers of Education, Health, Presidency and Higher Education. From preschool to colleges, the school system stops starting Friday, JN learns. The announcement will be made this Thursday, after the meeting of the Council of Ministers.
The alarming figures, the day Portugal reached new highs for covid cases (14,647) and deaths (219), raised the tone of the closure requests. But the main factor to weigh on the government’s decision was the growth in circulation of the British variant, more aggressive for children. This information was transmitted by specialists in a meeting held with the Ministers of Health and the Presidency, in which the Government sought to base, with epidemiological data, the definition of the way forward.
The data on the new variant were preponderant in the evaluation of the team that met around António Costa, as soon as the prime minister of Brussels arrived. Even so, a source close to the government emphasizes that the decision is not based on any consideration that schools are a factor of propagation: “The main objective is to force the country to stop.” Rather than technical reasons, the political consideration that schools served as an alibi to maintain excessive levels of circulation was weighed.
The President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, contributed to pressure the Government. After putting the emphasis on schools the day before, he demanded that closure be considered between Wednesday and Thursday.
From mayors to hospital officials, various voices joined the chorus against keeping schools open. Among them, the president of the PSD, Rui Rio.
Peak in February
The researchers’ forecasts point to highs of around 16,000 new cases a day in early February; the National Institute of Health Dr. Ricardo Jorge (INSA) confirms that 60% of new infections in the next month will be attributed to the United Kingdom variant, which is more aggressive for children; and hospitals cannot accommodate more patients.
The closure of schools is not one of the factors considered in the epidemiological models on the evolution of infections. But, in the opinion of Pedro Simões Coelho, from the Nova Information Management School, although the effect of school closings on transmission has not been proven, “no matter how close it is, it is worth closing.” Not so much because of what happens inside the schools, he explained to JN, but because of what “gravitates” around him, such as trips by parents, students, teachers and staff and going out to eat lunch, which lead to the movement. of thousands of people.
Pedro Simões Coelho is the coordinator of the “Covid-19 Insights” platform, which provides forecasts of the evolution of the pandemic in different scenarios.
The least optimistic, in which the measures now applied result in a 10% drop in transmissibility (compared to the closing results of March), pointed yesterday (they are updated daily) to 17,139 thousand new cases / day on 19 February. The most optimistic, in which the reduction is 90%, manages to reduce new cases to 4,951 in a month. The 60% reduction gives an estimate of 5815 new infections.
Continuing with the drop parameter of 60%, the forecast for February 19 is 6,625 patients in the ward, of which 1,233 are in intensive care. The cumulative number of deaths would be 13,833.
In the model developed by Carlos Antunes, from the Faculty of Sciences of the University of Lisbon, the predictions are different. Without anticipating days, the mathematician estimates a maximum ceiling of 16,000 new cases / day at the beginning of February, in light of yesterday’s data. In terms of hospitalizations, he estimates 6,500 patients, 900 in intensive care beds.
“All the ceilings that we are putting in are breaking down,” said the expert, adding that the impact of last week’s measures “is not yet felt.” “Supposedly, we should already be seeing a slowdown,” he emphasized, defending the “increase in detection capacity”: surveys and epidemiological tests.
Lisbon: more transmission
The accounts of the experts attribute to yesterday an average transfer rate (Rt) of 1.13. At the regional level, it is in Lisbon and Vale do Tejo where the value is highest (1.16). This week, Carlos Antunes had revealed that young people between the ages of 18 and 24 are the age group with the highest incidence (per 100,000 inhabitants) of new infections. Followed by teenagers between 13 and 17 years old.
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