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The survey by the Catholic University, carried out between January 11 and 14, a week ago, therefore, somehow translates a little of everything that has been happening that is politically relevant and that can, more or less profound, influence the vote of the Portuguese here represented by the sample.
At the head of the results of this poll, the victory of the president and candidate Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa comes with about 63%. This is a comfortable percentage for the current tenant in Belém, despite the five percentage point drop compared to the 68% it guaranteed even last month. Calculations made and we have, despite the fall, a re-election in the first round.
Not surprisingly, this victory for Marcelo in the first round, one of the main points of interest in the survey has to do precisely with the dispute for second place after André Ventura declared when presenting his candidacy that he would resign as director of the Chega party se. stay behind Ana Gomes. The four percentage points of advantage of the former MEP (14%) would be, if the elections were held today, a door that opens for the departure of André Ventura, who only guarantees 10% of the preference of those surveyed.
A curious fact is that the two best-positioned candidates in the poll are not party candidates, in the sense that they were appointed by their natural party (Marcelo for PSD and Ana Gomes for PS).
This unmistakable party brand appears only with André Ventura and, here, for more than one reason. Immediately after the respondents’ preference appears João Ferreira (CDU candidate – PCP y Verdes) with 5%, Marisa Matias (BE) in fifth position with 3%, Tiago Mayan Gonçalves (IL) also with 3% and Vitorino Silva (RIR) with 2%.
Pandemic and abstention
Despite mentioning that, “from what we know of the comparison between polls and electoral results in previous elections, we could say that, with great probability, the percentage of votes in MRS will not be very different from what this poll indicates”, CESOP notes that “this is an atypical year (…) and the pandemic situation could increase abstention even more than expected.”
This is a scenario that, according to Catholic technicians, tends to harm Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa: because “he is the anticipated winner”; because “it does not campaign and, therefore, devalues these elections”; “The increase in cases, deaths and chaos in the emergency room can be considered by voters as their responsibility”; the risk of abstention with the fact of being “the candidate with the most support among the oldest voters and among the voters most afraid to go to vote.”
Pandemic risk and abstention
This is a period, with a rampant pandemic and recommendations from the health authorities to stay at home, in which it makes more sense than ever to question the Portuguese about their intention to vote.
However, despite the seriousness of the situation, 62% of those surveyed answered that “they will surely vote” and another 19% that “in principle they will vote”, which makes 81% of those surveyed determined to participate. in the election of the next President of the Republic. Of these accounts there were another 19% (4% “sure you will not vote”, 3% “I have no intention of voting” and 12% “I still do not know if you will vote”).
CESOP leaves a note that it is not possible to predict a value for abstention from these responses.
The sample was also asked about “fear of voting.” They answered that they had “no fear” 57%, “little fear” 8%, “some fear” 24% and “a lot of fear” 9%.
CESOP takes this data to make a new vote estimate, stating that Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is “the candidate most affected by the ‘fear of voting’ [não indiciando contudo] that victory in the first lap is at risk ”.
On the other hand, “the distance of 4 percentage points between GA [Ana Gomes] e AV [André Ventura] drops to 2 percentage points among fearless people. Taking into account the difficult week foreseen in Portuguese hospitals, it cannot be ruled out that the difference between AG and VA may decrease or even change. Of course, with the opposite sign, we can witness a concentration of votes on the left with a benefit for AG and a loss for MM [Marisa Matias] and JF [João Ferreira]”.
Marcelo fishing a bit of everything
Based on the intention to vote in the legislatures and those who responded that they would vote “safe”, the survey also shows that (crossing voting intentions in presidential and legislative) Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa “accumulates voting intentions of all at this time the political quadrants ”.
Even so, “its greatest strength is in the PSD, CDS and PS electorate”, with the socialist preference evident in the group of “67% of the PS electorate [que] Think about voting ”for the candidate for president. The eclecticism of Marcelo’s candidacy also allows him to have 29% of the voters of the BE, 44% of the PAN, 71% of the CDS-PP and 71% of the PSD.
This hybrid vote has the same manifestation in Ana Gomes, with the independent candidate seeking votes from the electorate BE (24%), CDU (16%), PAN (28%) and PS (18%). The remaining candidates essentially have a solid base of support from the parties that launched them.
Data sheet
This survey was conducted by CESOP – Universidade Católica Portuguesa for RTP and Public between January 11 and 14, 2021. The target universe is made up of voters residing in Portugal. Respondents were randomly selected from a list of mobile phone numbers, also generated at random. All interviews were conducted by telephone (CATI). Respondents were informed of the purpose of the study and demonstrated their willingness to participate. Valid surveys were obtained in 2001, with 46% of respondents women, 29% from the north, 20% from the center, 38% from the AM of Lisbon, 6% from the Alentejo, 4% from the Algarve, the 2% from Madeira and 2% from the Azores. . Next, all the results obtained were weighted according to the distribution of the population by sex, age groups, region and legislative vote in 2019. The response rate was 44%. The maximum margin of error associated with a random sample of respondents from 2001 is 2.2%, with a confidence level of 95%.
