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The official presidential campaign will not begin until next week. But Marcelo’s various rivals are on tour and have been giving interviews. Perhaps that is why notoriety rates (recognition, by voters, of who the candidates are) increase across the board. And how does that translate into votes? In this first poll of 2021, Marcelo once again loses margin for second place and Ana Gomes maintains a position – precisely, second place – that André Ventura has been showing signs of wanting to grab for several weeks. There are no changes in position on the podium, but there are slight changes and signs of continuity that are worth analyzing.
In this third consecutive week, there are results from the Observer / TVI / Pythagorean survey that are beginning to gain consistency. First of all, Marcelo is (after all, by a huge advantage) the first choice in voting intentions and the natural winner even for those voters who do not intend to give him their vote. In early December, that’s what 92% of those surveyed said. At the moment, this is already true for 97% of the voters participating in the poll. But it is also clear that the slack with which the President of the Republic left for this follow-up survey (when he was very close to reaching the record result in the presidential elections – Mário Soares, with 70.95%, in 1991) he fades every week. Now, voting intentions for Marcelo remain at 66.5% (already with an undecided cast). In a campaign in which Marcelo will be against everyone, as always when a President comes out in search of re-election, it will be interesting to see how Marcelo manages that advantage: can he reinforce it? Or will it lose ground due to the political “attacks” each opponent saved for each face-to-face with the race favorite?
Secondly, and closely related to the previous idea, it is increasingly true that the election to the Presidency of the Republic will not force voters to return to the polls after January 24. The same is to say that we must face an election with only one round. As, incidentally, it is tradition since Mário Soares forced Freitas do Amaral to a second round, in the 1986 elections. It was a historic race, with the socialist turning the electoral board in his favor and surpassing Freitas, passing from 25.43% in the first round to 51.18% of the votes in the decisive contest. Archives aside, with regard to this year’s elections, everything seems to point to a result in the first. 83% of those surveyed have already believed in this scenario. Now they reach 87%.
Third, in this sum of the most stable signs of the Observer / TVI / Pitagórica survey, Ana Gomes is once again identified as the best positioned candidate to compete for the position with Marcelo, although the probability that the election will go to second return is an absolutely distant scene. This does not mean that the former MEP is the owner and the lady of the second place in the elections, especially since that, strictly speaking, will only be known on January 24. Until that day, we use the surveys and the signals they give us.
These are the weekly variations mentioned above. Changes that, without anticipating that they may influence the final result, as regards the winner, may have an impact on the future of the campaign of some of the candidates.
This is precisely the case of Ana Gomes and André Ventura. In the latest poll, the former MEP held on to the two-tenth advantage she had over the Chega leader. Ventura had taken a significant jump (1.7 percentage points) and benefited, at the same time, from the drop of one tenth of the Socialists. Now, with the campaign on the doorstep and the debates in full swing (except for the date of collection of these responses, between December 17 and 27), Ana Gomes takes off from her most direct opponent.
The socialist collects 13% of the voting intentions. An increase of 2.1 percentage points and that contrasts with the loss of one tenth of André Ventura, which falls to 10.6% of the intentions expressed by those surveyed. Ana Gomes loses, by a fine line, to the candidate supported by Chega in the male constituency (13% against 14%) and wins in the female (9% against 4%). The two candidates are tied for the votes of the youngest voters (9% each way) and in the 45-54 age group. Ana Gomes loses in the electorate between 34-44 (9% against 11% for Ventura) and wins in the largest electorate (14% that beats 8% of the opponent).
In the analysis by social class, the socialist now wins in a generalized way and, in the assessment of the vote for political sensitivity (transfer of votes from legislative to presidential of 2019), André Ventura remains firm with the electorate of the CDS (in which accumulates 31% of the votes and the socialist void) and the PSD. To the left and to the center left, the victory in this duel hangs on the side of Ana Gomes (if we exclude the victory of Marcelo in the Bloc and, with greater expression, with the socialist electorate).
It becomes evident, week after week, that after Marcelo, in the first line, and Ana Gomes and André Ventura, in the second line, the applications of Marisa Matias, João Ferreira, Tiago Mayan Gonçalves and Vitorino Silva fill the vacancies of a third. electoral level. At this level, the scenario has been getting worse for the candidates of the two parties that supported the “contraption” – Marisa Matias and João Ferreira -, in contrast to the gradual growth but the novelty of the election, the name supported by the Liberal Initiative. . .
We have already seen here, in previous weeks, that Marisa Matias has more at stake in this election than the race to Belém. The candidate supported by the Bloco de Esquerda left the 2016 presidential elections as the woman with the best vote in history in an electoral race in this area. : 10.12%, almost 470 thousand votes. A mirage, judging by this edition of the Observer / TVI / Pythagorean survey. This week Marisa Matias presents 4.5% of the voting intentions. It is the third consecutive week of vote loss (it started with 6.5%).
João Ferreira has a similar path. It started with 3.5% of the voting intentions. In itself, and if it materializes, it would be a result below the worst that the PCP has achieved in the presidential elections. The performance remained the same the following week but, at this point, the communist candidate is down to 2.8%. And the removal of voters who, initially, would be more favorable to them has a significant weight in these results.
In fact, only 37% of the respondents who say they have voted for the Esquerda Bloco in the last legislatures admit wanting to vote for Marisa Matias. In the case of the PCP, being stronger, the loyalty of this electorate is maintained in 67% of the voting intentions in João Ferreira. The situation is especially serious in the case of the MEP. With the exception of his own party, João Ferreira captures only 2% of the votes of blocking voters, apart from that niche, zero. Neither the PS nor any other party guarantees you the minimum vote. Marisa Matias still manages to get 6% of the votes for the PCP voters, 2% for the PS and others for the PSD.
It should also be noted that, if André Ventura obtains a declining rejection rate (from 77.3% to 70.7% in three weeks), Marisa Matias faces more and more respondents to absolutely reject her vote on January 24 : it was 44.9%, it rose to 50% and, now, this rate is already 57.8%.
In the opposite direction is Tiago Mayan Gonçalves. The candidate who has the support of the Liberal Initiative – double debut in the presidential elections, for him and for the party – started these polls with 0.9% of the votes but, this week, he arrives with 1.7% . It is the second worst result among all the candidates, it is true (only Vitorino Silva is behind, with the same 0.8% that he brought from the previous survey). But it is also the second consecutive promotion of one of the candidates with whom voters are least familiar. And, above all, it represents an increase compared to the result that his party achieved in the 2019 legislatures, when he elected the first and only deputy to the Assembly of the Republic, with 1.29% of the votes.
Data sheet
For 6 weeks (December 10, 2020 to January 21, 2020), TVI and the Observer will publish a poll each week with a minimum sample of 626 interviews. Each week the sample will correspond to 2 subsamples of 313 interviews. One of the subsamples will be collected in the week of publication and the other in the week before publication. Each subsample will be representative of the Portuguese electoral universe (not probabilistic) according to the criteria of gender, age and region.
Week 3 Post: The fieldwork was carried out between December 17-20 and 22,23,26 and December 27, 20202. A total sample of 629 interviews was collected which, for a confidence level of 95.5%, corresponds to a maximum margin of error of ± 4.0%. The selection of the respondents was made through the random generation of “mobile phone” numbers, maintaining the proportion of the 3 main operators identified by the ANACOM report, whenever necessary, fixed numbers are randomly selected to support compliance with the plan Of sampling. Interviews are collected through telephone interviews (CATI – Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing).
The objective of the study is to evaluate the opinion of Portuguese voters on issues related to the elections, that is, the main protagonists, the moments of the campaign, as well as the intention to vote in the different parties.
The response rate was 54.84%. The technical direction of the study is in charge of Rita Marques da Silva.
The abstention rate for the survey is 55.9%, which corresponds to those interviewed who initially refused to answer the interview because they did not intend to vote in this election.
The complete technical file as well as all the results were made available to the Regulatory Body of Social Communication, which will make them available in due course for online consultation.
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