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After a year marked by a pandemic crisis, which quickly turned into one of the biggest economic crises in history, it is hoped that the vaccination plans already in place can end the pandemic and help economic recovery. But for some countries, the levels will remain below those registered in the pre-pandemic.
According to the predictions of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), there are even several countries that will grow in double digits in 2021, but there are still others where the economy will continue without showing signs of resilience during the period under analysis.
In the case of Portugal, the international institution expects that the national economy may register a 6.5% recovery in the year that now begins, which represents the 27th highest economic growth among the 193 countries evaluated and represented in the Organization of Nations. United (UN).
After an expected 10% contraction in 2020, the IMF is aiming for similarly robust growth, but at levels still well below the pre-pandemic period. The impact caused by this pandemic is therefore much higher than in the years between the crises of 2009 and 2014. This IMF forecast is more pessimistic than that of the Bank of Portugal, which points to a drop of 8.1 %. in GDP (gross domestic product) of the year that has ended.
Compared to its peers in Europe, Portugal is expected to record the third largest economic recovery among the 27 member states of the European Union (EU), only surpassed by neighboring Spain (7.2%) and Slovakia (6.9% ). The IMF expects countries to experience economic contractions of 12.8% and 7.1% in 2020, respectively.
But there are countries that will achieve an even more pronounced recovery, well above 10%. This is the case of Libya (76%), Macao (23.9%), Maldives (12.7%) and Fiji (11.5%). In emerging markets, the highlight is China, the world’s second-largest economy, which despite being the epicenter of the pandemic, will manage to register an economic expansion of 1.9% in 2020, with the IMF forecasting growth of the 8.2% in 2021. India, another country with great economic potential, has seen its economy fall by more than 10%, but will see a recovery of 8.8% this year.
On the “dark” side of the table are countries such as Venezuela, whose economy will suffer a 10% drop in 2021. Palau (-7.4%), Tonga (-3.5%) and South Sudan (-2 , 3%) are other countries that have not yet managed to grow.
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