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The poll indicates that the current president of the Republic would be easily re-elected in the first round if the elections were held today. According to the report, 45 percent of those surveyed intend to vote for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, which would give him 68 percent of the votes cast..
Socialist Ana Gomes occupies second place, with 13 percent of the voting intentions, followed by Chega’s candidate, André Ventura, with eight percent of the votes. The candidates of the PCP, João Ferreira, and of the Bloco de Esquerda, Marisa Matias, appear with the same percentage of votes (five percent). In last place (one percent) is Tiago Mayan Gonçalves, candidate of the Liberal Initiative.
Despite Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa’s clear advantage, his percentage is expected to drop until election day, increasing that of other candidates, as happened in previous elections. In December 2015, a CESOP poll indicated that the current President of the Republic had 62 percent of the votes, but was elected with 52 percent.
According to the survey, Among BE voters in legislatures, 28 percent intend to vote for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and 13 percent for Marisa Matias. The candidate Ana Gomes appears even with a higher percentage of votes than the blocking candidate herself (17 percent).
On the PS side, 66 percent of the electorate plans to vote for the current president, while Ana Gomes, the socialist who presented the candidacy without the support of the party, receives only seven percent of the votes.
Among the PCP electorate, the majority (38 percent) plan to vote for the party-supported candidate, João Ferreira. However, Marcelo presents a significant percentage of voting intentions in the communist electorate: 32 percent.
In Chega, André Ventura has a great advantage, with 72 percent of the votes he obtained in the legislatures. The far-right party candidate only loses 13 percent of the vote for the current head of state. But this apparent solidity of the Chega electorate must also be put into perspective, since this case is being compared to an election in which that party was just making its debut and only received the vote of its initial hard core.
Of the Liberal Initiative, 30 percent of the electorate considers voting for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, plus five percent of the votes that the party’s candidate, Tiago Mayan Gonçalves, would receive.
More than half (55 percent) of the PAN electorate responded that they did not know who to trust and 23 percent thought they would vote for Marisa Matias. Also according to the poll, 18 percent of the People-Animals-Nature constituency intends to vote for Marcelo. In other words, Marisa Matias does better in Marcelo’s confrontation with the PAN electorate than with the BE.If the elections were held today, Marcelo would also receive 69 percent of the votes of the PSD electorate.
A little over a month before the presidential elections, 66 percent of those polled confirmed that they will vote “with confidence” and only two and four percent responded that they “have no intention of going” or “they certainly will not vote”, respectively.
In addition, 71 percent of those surveyed (conducted between December 4 and 11 of this year) responded that they were not afraid to go to the polls in view of the current pandemic scenario and 91 percent responded that they do not suggest no. vote for this reason.
This survey was carried out by CESOP Universidade Católica Portuguesa for RTP and Public between December 4 and 11, 2020. The target universe is made up of voters residing in Portugal. Respondents were randomly selected from a list of mobile and landline numbers, also randomly generated. All interviews were conducted by telephone (CATI). Respondents were informed of the purpose of the study and demonstrated their willingness to participate. 1,315 valid consultations were obtained, 48 of which were women, 30 from the North, 20 from the Center, 36 from the AM of Lisbon, 6 from Alentejo, 4 from the Algarve, 2 from Madeira and 2 from the Azores. All the results obtained were then weighted according to the distribution of the population by sex, age groups and region according to the voter registry and the INE estimates. The response rate was 34. The maximum margin of error associated with a random sample of 1,315 respondents is 2 7 with a 95% confidence level.
