[ad_1]
The epidemiologist Manuel do Carmo Gomes defended this Thursday that, “if everything goes well” with the vaccination against covid-19, at the end of March there will be an immunization “sufficiently large” in the population to avoid “large increases in cases.”
Manuel do Carmo Gomes, from the Faculty of Sciences of the University of Lisbon, thus responded to the questions posed by the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, at the meeting that took place at Infarmed, in Lisbon, where experts and politicians analyzed the epidemiological situation of covid -19 in Portugal.
At the end of the presentation of the experts, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, praised the presentations made by the experts, considering that “they were exceptionally interesting” and “very instructive” and asked the researchers several questions, the first of them “how do you see the month December in relation to early 2021 ”.
“From the projections it seems that it can be inferred that despite the evolution with positive signs there is a need for consolidation, given that in terms of hospitalizations, in terms of hospitalizations in intensive care units or if the peak continues to reach the peak or not it has reached the peak and the subsequent evolution is unknown, “said the head of state.
The second question is “more specific” and is related to the fact that, within the framework of the measures to be adopted, such as “who see the issue, that is, in periods such as Christmas and the end of the year, the displacement or mobility of people ”And how relevant this measure is.
Manuel do Carmo Gomes began by saying that he is “optimistic about the end of the year”, but said that it depends on the relaxation of the measures or not “and the Portuguese adherence to these measures to curb infections.
In his opinion, the measures “should not be significantly relaxed”, highlighting that there will be families who will meet at Christmas and as the presentations made at the meeting show, this behavior “increases the probability of contagion.”
“Inevitably I hope that there will be an increase in the number of infections at the time of the holidays, that week between the 23rd and the end of the year and that is reflected after 15 days (…) in the incidence of the disease,” he said Manuel do Carmo Gomes, forecasting an increase in cases in early January.
But he said he hopes “it is not too big” and that it can be controlled simultaneously with the start of vaccination.
“I think that if all goes well when we get to the end of March, we will have a large enough number of people immunized by vaccination to avoid already large increases that surprise us in incidence,” he emphasized.
In the meantime, outbreaks will continue and people must continue to take protective measures, especially since there is no certainty whether the vaccine will prevent infection and transmission in asymptomatic patients, he warned.
He also said that he hopes that in the summer the country is “close to the return to normality”: “I hope that we can already have good prospects” for economic activity and tourism “, but, he said,” until then we will have to lick the wounds “.”
On the impact of restricting movements in certain counties, over a period of time, in terms of the number of cases and the reduction in incidence, he said he had a difficult time responding.
“It is not only we in Portugal who have difficulties in establishing the connection between particular measures and then how this is reflected in the drop in cases, but it is clear that anything that contributes to reducing the number of contacts and the probability” of contagion contributes to being able to maintain control over the epidemic, he said.
The covid-19 pandemic has already caused more than 1.4 million deaths worldwide since December last year, including 4,724 in Portugal.
