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Stronger measures adapted to the local reality in the provinces or areas of the country with the greatest transmission of contagion and permanent surveillance of the evolution of the epidemic, to act preventively – the path was pointed out yesterday at the Infarmed meeting of experts , as well as the scenario: With the current levels of mobility, it is not certain that the country can flatten the curve of cases and, maintaining the current level of diagnoses, which is expected to exceed 7 thousand cases a day in the coming days, the Pressure on hospitals puts the response to the population on red lines, with intensive care, particularly in the North, in a situation close to breaking.
The peak of cases and this rise to a level of a daily weekly average of more than 7 thousand new infections (in the last 7 days, there were 6,400) is expected in the next week, with stabilization expected. For there to be a fall, the R has to tend to be below 1, which will imply a greater reduction in contacts and control of infections. Baltazar Nunes, epidemiologist at the Ricardo Jorge Institute, mentioned in the meeting the need for a decrease of around 60% with respect to the pre-pandemic values so that R is less than 1. In recent weeks it has been around -30% . Google’s mobility reports, updated yesterday with data from last Sunday, in which the curfew was in force, show a significant reduction, with the circulation associated with shopping and leisure areas with a reduction of 57% compared to usual before the pandemic, which hasn’t happened since deflation. Also in outdoor leisure areas, such as parks, there was a drop of 56%, greater than in previous weekends. However, there is still no data to show at this point whether in this second week of the state of emergency, which covers 8.5 million Portuguese in the 191 municipalities with the highest incidence, mobility has been reduced, which in the case of workplaces have been reduced. been around -20%.
More divided municipalities, decisions only when the government makes them
Throughout the week, after meetings between parties and the President of the Republic, various scenarios were made public, but the Executive clarified yesterday that so far no decisions have been made, even considering that, before that happens, any ad is “pure speculation. ”. The Council of Ministers will meet this Friday, Marcelo has already announced that this Friday he will also speak to the country at night, and the announcement of the measures was scheduled for Saturday. According to the OI, the strategy of dividing municipalities into three risk levels, defining different measures for those that register an accumulated incidence in 14 days between 240 and 480 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants, for those between 480 and 960 and for those who are for Above this level, it is the scenario in which you have been working.
As for the measures themselves, the decree that renews the state of emergency, sent yesterday by the President of the Republic to Parliament, goes beyond what was in force these 15 days. It provides that in the municipalities with the highest risk, or groups of municipalities, restrictions are maintained such as the prohibition of circulating on public roads during certain periods of the day or certain days of the week (which until now has been imposed at night and on weekends week), as well as the prohibition of unjustified trips. One of the scenarios on the table is a new travel ban between municipalities on long weekends in December, and this renewal of the state of emergency, which comes into effect on Monday, already covers the holidays of December 1 and 8. , which this year falls on Tuesday. However, the bans will have to safeguard access to medical care, schools or assistance to relatives, as was the case last weekend on All Saints’ Weekend. The decree now also provides for situations of compulsory confinement of infected people or under surveillance “in a health facility, at home or, when this is not possible, in another place defined by the competent authorities.”
The diploma, which will be voted on this Friday in the Assembly of the Republic, also provides that the competent authorities may order to close, totally or partially, services and companies or make new adaptations of schedules. A study presented by Henrique Barros pointed, for example, to a greater probability of contagion in gyms and in face-to-face work, but also to the risk among those who live in crowded houses, which can help us understand in which situations confinement can occur in other structures.
As it happened two weeks ago, it will be the Government who will evaluate the different contributions, decide and implement the measures and will say what applies, when and where and with what objectives. One of the data transmitted last week, however, was clarified yesterday at the meeting: in the most recent cases, 80%, it is not known where the infection occurred. Only in 18% of cases was an epidemiological link established, and it is in this minority that there is information that 60% of infections occur in social or family life, an argument that the Government used to impose restrictions from the time of the lunch to the end. week.
And after the peak? Experts do not rule out new vacancy if measures are lifted
At the Infarmed meeting, Marcelo asked the experts if, after this peak, another is foreseeable and if the measures that are now being taken will have to be maintained. Manuel Carmo Gomes, an epidemiologist, responded that everything will depend on the measures taken from now on. The researcher eliminated the scenario of a new general confinement such as the one experienced in March, stating, however, that he does not see an alternative to the current strategy of differentiated measures, highlighting that they should remain in the coming months. “Will there be another peak in January and February? Our projection is that we will reach a peak between the end of this month and the beginning of next. If we maintain the pressure, the R will drop to 1. Then everything will depend on what we do. As we’ve already seen, the R is always ready to shoot there. It is up to us whether or not we will have a peak in January or February, ”he said. João Gouveia, coordinator of the intensive care response, defended the need to stop the spread of the virus due to the disruption it is causing in health, and should now suspend non-urgent activity to increase the areas of hospitalization and ICU. “I am convinced that there will be a third and fourth wave. And we cannot maintain the type of reactive expansion because it is not compatible with normal medical activity, ”he said.
Portugal now with one of the most critical situations in the EU and already doubled deaths in October
Without closed or easy roads, Portugal ends the week now more and more in the red among the European countries where there is a more intense epidemiological situation. Yesterday, in the tables of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), it had already gone from tenth to eighth place among the countries with the highest cumulative incidence, after some countries have already reached a peak of cases and registered a slowdown. The country is expected to pass the barrier of 800 cases per 100,000 inhabitants today, with more than 80,000 cases reported in the last 14 days. In the North region, with 49 thousand diagnoses in this period, the incidence exceeds 1,300 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, double that experienced in the Lisbon region, the second most affected in the country. Since the beginning of the month, 1,157 people infected with SARS-CoV-2 have died in the country, more than double that of October.
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