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The number of daily cases of contagion by the new coronavirus in the North is “decreasing”, said this Wednesday a specialist from the University of Porto, warning, however, that the incidence “Beat four times” the limit stipulated per 100,000 inhabitants.
In statements to Lusa, Óscar Felgueiras, a mathematician specializing in epidemiology at the University of Porto, explained this Wednesday that the mathematical models point to a “Stabilization of the order of 3,000 daily cases for the North region” this and next week.
“The central scenario foresees an average value close to 3,000 cases per day in the North region and with the possibility of a decrease in the number of cases starting next week,” he stressed, considering “too early to evaluate” whether the ” growth slowdown “reflects the measures implemented.
“The association of the measures that come into force with the effect is not entirely obvious, but eventually people’s behavior may have changed in some way,” he said.
Although “data consolidation and evaluation” is still needed, statistical models indicate that “It is possible that the peak of infectivity has already ended”, that is to say, that the moment of “greater number of onset of symptoms in the region will eventually end.”
“It is risky to make a definitive statement, but the model that I have followed tells me that the peak of contagion will have passed, but it is still in consolidation. Only within a week will it be possible to determine whether or not this peak occurred and when it occurred., he clarified.
Although the scenario indicates a certain stabilization in the number of cases of contagion by the new coronavirus, which causes Covid-19, “the pressure on the hospital system is very high.”
What is expected in these two weeks is that the pressure on the hospital system will be maximum, we have never had such pressure with hospitals as now (…). In this sense, even in a scenario of eventual stabilization, additional measures may be justified, “said the expert, noting that the incidence in the region is” extremely high. “
“The North has a very high incidence, greater than 1,000 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 14 days and that is in relation to the limit imposed by the limitations of the municipalities [240 casos por 100 mil habitantes em 14 dias] four more times, ”he added.
According to Óscar Felgueiras, data from the General Directorate of Health (DGS) indicate that the average incidence of cases in the North is 1,042 per 100,000 inhabitants, in the Lisbon and Tagus Valley region of 446 cases, the national average being to be fixed. 610 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 14 days.
For Lusa, the specialist stated that “there are more than 20 municipalities in the region” whose incidence exceeds four times the limit stipulated by the Government and that this is “a cause for concern.”
“It is obvious that in the North there is a very strong impact and that is cause for concern, even if the situation stabilizes. If we had a lower level, this stabilization would be good news, but taking into account the high incidence and the consequence that this has on the influx to health services, this is not sustainable and there must be a brake, “he said, recalling , but nevertheless. , that the “brake will not act as fast” as desired.
“We have to be aware that when the brake is applied it will not act as fast, that is, we had an escalation [de casos] very fast, but the descent will not be so fast “, stressed.
In addition to the incidence, there is another factor that “does not comfort” for the North region: “the positivity of the diagnostic tests that is around 20%”.
“In a situation where the positivity is so high, it means that many cases are not detected, especially the asymptomatic ones, which may not be very concerning in and of themselves, but have the potential to transmit and spread the virus,” he said.
Portugal represents at least 3,021 deaths associated with Covid-19 in 187,237 confirmed cases of infection, according to the latest bulletin from the General Directorate of Health (DGS).
