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With the cases of covid-19 diagnosed in the country in the last week, the counties that now have an incidence of more than 120 cases per 100,000 inhabitants have gone from 72 to 117 in a time window of 14 days, the level high risk defined by the European Center. Prevention and control of diseases. According to the data made available by the General Directorate of Health by municipality last Monday, the day on which the information at the municipal level is updated in the covid-19 bulletins, there are now 46 municipalities above the level of 240 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, very high risk, when a week ago there were 25. In Porto, where hospitals are under greater pressure, the threshold of 500 cases per 100,000 inhabitants was exceeded.
The DGS data, which I analyzed, confirm the worsening of the epidemiological situation in the country, especially in the North region, where most of the municipalities with the highest incidence of new cases are located (and which in the last week had twice as many cases in the Lisbon region). In the last week, of the 19,273 new cases reported in the country, only 65% (12,499) were distributed by municipalities, so the analysis of the evolution of cases by municipality does not allow a complete assessment of the situation in each locality. A question that has already been asked to the DGS in recent months and that is related to the fact that the data by municipality includes only the notifications that doctors make when they confirm the place of residence of the infected and not the notifications of new cases that laboratories do.
Taking this element into account, the incidence by municipality based on these data is an underestimate, but it gives an idea of the evolution of the risk of contagion, this at a time when the DGS and the Ministry of Health have not yet published maps of risk at the municipality level. in the country and only a few municipalities provide this information to the population. The Ministry of Health has already guaranteed that risk maps have been used since the summer to evaluate the measures to be taken, as happened when 19 parishes in the metropolitan area of Lisbon were marked with greater contagion. The Health Minister also said last week that they would be released as soon as they are more stabilized.
At a time when the epidemiological situation is getting worse, the dissemination of risk maps by municipality has been advocated by different specialists also to alert the population of the current risk of contagion, and some doctors have also defended the need to strengthen measures in the zones. with greater transmission, which is expected to happen in the next few days after the government last week tightened restrictions in the municipalities of Lousada, Felgueiras and Paços de Ferreira.
If a week ago, the three municipalities with the highest incidence of new cases were Paços de Ferreira, Lousada and Bragança, with the evolution of the epidemic in the last week, the third place was occupied by the municipality of Vizela. In Paços de Ferreira, the incidence in the last 14 days increased from 1,215 cases per 100,000 inhabitants to 1951. In Lousada, it went from 680 to 1268. In Vizela, district of Braga, it increased from 322 to 745. Note that the three counties have fewer than 100,000 inhabitants, but the indicator is used internationally to compare incidence. Municipalities with fewer inhabitants are expected to have higher values, but these are already quite high levels when the level of greatest risk at European level is set at 240 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.
At the national level, the ten municipalities with the highest incidence taking into account their population were, in addition to these three, the municipalities of Mogadouro, Borba, Felgueiras, Belmonte, Porto, Vila Flor and Beja. Mogadouro, Borba, Belmonte and Vila Flor, registered in the DGS bulletins less than 30 cases in the last week. Analyzing only the municipalities that registered more than 100 new cases, Porto stands out in the group with the highest incidence, one of the main cities in the country with the highest transmission in the last 14 days (548 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, when in Lisbon or Sintra an incidence is around 340 cases per 100,000 inhabitants). Paredes, Matosinhos, Cinfães, Penafiel, Guimarães are also above the level of 400 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the last two weeks. Santo Tirso, Macedo de Cavaleiros and Valongo are approaching. In the Lisbon region, the municipalities of Sintra and Lisbon have the highest incidence per 100 thousand inhabitants, they are also the most populated in the country and those that, in absolute terms, registered the most cases in the last week. In the metropolitan area of Lisbon, the municipality of Cascais appears in third place and is, after Sintra and Lisbon, the only one that is already above the level of 300 new cases per 100 thousand inhabitants.
When asked last week by i about the difference between cases by county and totals and if changes were anticipated to get a stronger picture of the situation at each location, DGS ensured that this stronger picture is possible when supplement data from laboratory notifications. with more information from other systems, “something that is being developed, or through the follow-up foreseen in the Autumn-Winter 2020-21 Health Plan”. The DGS explained that currently it is not possible to know the area of residence of the case only with the information from the laboratory notification. “This information becomes available later, and it is possible to make a more robust treatment of the information and integrate it into the newsletter. This delay is due to the fact that health teams have privileged clinical and public health intervention ”.
Municipalities with more than 240 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (Period of 14 days between October 12 and 26, in descending order)
Paços de Ferreira, Lousada, Vizela, Mogadouro, Borba, Felgueiras, Belmonte, Porto, Vila Flor, Beja, Marco de Canaveses, Alvaiázere, Bragança, Walls, Matosinhos, Cinfães, Penafiel, Guimarães, Santo Tirso, Macedo de Cavaleiros, Valongo, Alfândega da Fé, Alcoutim, Sintra, Lisbon, Pinhel, Amarante, Alijó, Vila Pouca de Aguiar, Ribeira de Pena, Cascais, Esposende, Fafe, Arruda dos Vinhos, Maia, Tabuaço, Idanha-a-Nova, Constância, Loures, Mafra , Almada, Vila Viçosa, Vila do Conde, Odivelas, Amadora, Vila Franca de Xira
Comarcas between 120 and 240 cases per 100,000 inhabitants
Guarda, Estremoz, São João da Madeira, Gondomar, Vila Real, Oeiras, Vila Nova de Gaia, Peso da Régua, Barcelos, Vila Nova de Famalicão, Mértola, Trofa, Vila Verde, Braga, Grândola, Oliveira de Frades, Resende, Entroncamento , Seixal, Póvoa de Varzim, Moita, Espinho, Cabeceiras de Basto, Santa Maria da Feira, Alenquer, Castelo de Paiva, Oliveira de Azeméis, Battle, Vila do Bispo, Alcácer do Sal, Penamacor, Lagos, Murça, Tavira, Sines, Ovar, Vila Velha de Ródão, Sever do Vouga, Póvoa de Lanhoso, Aveiro, Redondo, Albergaria-a-Velha, Setúbal, Viana do Alentejo, Montemor-o-Novo, Gavião, Paredes de Coura, Chamusca, Mira, Torres Novas, Caminha, São Brás de Alportel, Amares, Sesimbra, Albufeira, Portimão, Cartaxo, Odemira, Trancoso, Valpaços, Chaves, Vale de Cambra, Viana do Castelo, Mirandela, Vagos, Coimbra, Alter do Chão, Celorico de Basto, Cantanhede, Abrantes , Santa Comba Dão
Ten counties with the most cases in the last week (October 19-26)
Lisbon (961) Sintra (691) Porto (624) Paços de Ferreira (542) Matosinhos (497) Guimarães (396) Cascais (359) Vila Nova de Gaia (358) Lousada (334) Loures (273)
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