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Experts warn that new SARS-CoV-2 infections could cross the “barrier of two thousand cases” this week in the North. The current transmissibility rate “allows for quick control.”
In statements to the Lusa agency, Óscar Felgueiras, a mathematician specializing in epidemiology at the University of Porto (U. Porto) stated that, “in the coming days, the North will overcome the barrier of two thousand cases” and “it would not be impossible, next week”. , reach the “four thousand” new infections by the new coronavirus, which causes covid-19. According to the balance of Wednesday of the General Health Directorate, the northern region recorded 1,379 daily infections.
Milton Severo, head of the projections of the Institute of Public Health of the University of Porto (ISPUP), clarified that the current transmissibility rate (the so-called RT) is “a high value that allows rapid uncontrolled”, therefore ” measures are necessary ”.
Óscar Felgueiras warns that the data from the General Health Directorate (DGS) per 100,000 inhabitants is an “underestimation of reality”, since there are differences between the sum of the number of cases in the municipalities and the total of cases in the region .
“In the last week, the sum of the counties gives 5,035 cases. But, according to the DGS bulletin, the total in the region is 7,489 cases, that is, this differential of 2,454 cases are the cases that are registered as in the North, but do not have an assigned province ”, he clarified.
According to the mathematician, the incidence in the North region “is well above the maximum threshold” of incidence established by the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control of 240 cases per 100,000 inhabitants for 14 days.
“The equivalent of 240 cases in two weeks is 120 in one week. From October 12 to 18, the region registered 210 cases, which means that the incidence is well above that level ”, he mentioned.
The official points out that the high incidence “constitutes a risk factor for the rest of the country,” so “it is natural that the rest of the country also follows this increase.
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