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Portugal is part of a group of three European countries where the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic had a “low effect” on the overall increase in mortality, concludes a study by researchers from Imperial College London, presented this Wednesday.
According to the study, which analyzes the additional deaths that occurred between mid-February and the end of May in a total of 21 industrialized countries and published in the journal Nature Medicine, the effect of covid-19 in Portugal was one of the lowest in the analyzed universe.
The “low effect” on mortality was felt in Portugal, Austria and Switzerland.
According to the document, coordinated by researcher Majid Ezzati, covid-19 directly caused 1,396 deaths in Portugal, which, according to the mathematical method used, means an increase in mortality (direct and indirect) of about 2,900 people (in Portugal) . ) in the period in question and in relation to the usual figures of previous years.
These figures represent a “mortality surplus” of around 13% in the country.
The analysis identifies four groups of countries based on the total number of deaths in the first wave of the pandemic.
“The first group comprises countries that have avoided a detectable increase in mortality overall and includes Bulgaria, New Zealand, Slovakia, Australia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Norway, Denmark and Finland,” the study says.
The second and third group of countries “experienced a low to moderate effect of the pandemic on overall deaths and include Austria, Switzerland and Portugal (low effect) and France, the Netherlands and Sweden (moderate effect),” it adds. the analysis.
Finally, the fourth group of countries, where mortality increased sharply during the period in question compared to the common values of previous years and which includes Belgium, Italy, Scotland, Spain and England and Wales.
In the total of 21 countries, between mid-February and the end of May, there were “some 206,000 more deaths than expected if the covid-19 pandemic had not occurred,” concludes this study.
England and Wales, in addition to Spain, were the most affected states, with an increase of between 37% and 38% in mortality in relation to the levels expected in the absence of a pandemic, which represents a level well above the average of 18% of the group of countries analyzed.
The list of European countries where the first wave of the pandemic caused the largest increase in mortality is followed by Italy, Scotland and Belgium.
The study warns that the disease caused by the Sars-Cov-2 virus directly caused more than a million deaths worldwide, according to official counts, but also resulted in indirect deaths, due to social and economic effects and the disruption of systems. health (delays in diagnoses, postponement of surgeries, decreased physical activity, increased suicides and domestic violence, among other factors).
On the other hand, the decrease in road traffic and the improvement in air quality during confinement prevented some deaths that would have occurred had there not been a pandemic.
Knowledge of these indirect effects is “necessary to understand the real impact of the pandemic in terms of public health”, explain the researchers from Imperial College London.
“This number (206,000) is similar to the total number of deaths from lung cancer and is more than double the deaths related to diabetes or breast cancer in these countries for an entire year,” said the National Institute for Demographic Studies (INED). , a study associate, in a statement released today.
According to the authors, the differences from one country to another “reflect variations in the characteristics of the population, in policies, in the response to the pandemic and in the preparation of public health systems.”
“The results of this research work can help implement public policies that limit mortality in future waves of the pandemic,” defended the INED.
According to one of the authors of the analysis, “countries that developed effective and comprehensive testing and contact-tracking campaigns at the local level, and those that implemented early and effective containment measures had fewer deaths during the first wave.”
“At a time when we are entering the second wave, testing and monitoring programs and support for people who have to isolate themselves are the most important measure to minimize the impact of the pandemic,” he defended.
Researchers have used mortality data since 2010 in the countries studied to establish how many deaths would normally be recorded in the period in question had the Covid-19 pandemic not occurred.
The comparison between these numbers and the number of deaths actually registered during this period allowed us to deduce that the surplus than usual is attributable to covid-19.
The countries chosen for the study were those with a population of more than four million and in which the team of researchers had weekly mortality data, disaggregated by age and sex, since at least 2015.
