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If the presidential elections were today, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa won in the first round, with 65% of the votes, reveals the study by ICS and ISCTE carried out for SIC and Expresso. Former MEP Ana Gomes would be in second place, with 12%, and André Ventura, in third place with 8% of voting intentions.
Pedro Magalhães explains that these results, well in advance, are rarely confirmed on election day and even warns that 65% of Marcelo is an “too high” estimate.
As for the electorate, he says that those who vote for Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa are the vast majority of PS and PSD voters. The researcher also reveals that the most divided electoral districts are those of the PS and the BE, this is because the leadership of the PS itself is divided in supporting Ana Gomes.
Regarding the former MEP, he says that his constituency is partly made up of PS voters and people who would vote for other parties, such as the PAN.
“Most of the voters who say they vote for the PAN intend to vote for Ana Gomes,” he concludes.
As for André Ventura, Pedro Magalhães believes that the candidate is fighting for third place and should not go beyond the electoral weight of the party.
