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Donald Trump is the most recent world leader, after the British Boris Johnson and the Brazilian Jair Bolsonaro, who after devaluing the severity and risks associated with the new coronavirus ends up contracting covid-19. Trump, as well as First Lady Melania Trump, tested positive and will spend a period of isolation in the White House.
The news comes a month and a day before the presidential elections on November 3 and appears already in the middle of the electoral campaign and after the first face-to-face between Trump and Democratic rival Joe Biden.
There is a bit of irony in the fact that Trump tested positive after several months in which he not only ignored the recommendations of health agencies, but proudly failed to comply with the call to wear a mask and ignored the rules of detachment. Social.
At the age of 74, the current US president is part of a high-risk group – of the more than 200 thousand deaths from covid registered in the US, eight out of ten are related to people over 65 years old – factor which further increases the uncertainty regarding the consequences of the infection.
Measuring the political effects of this new reality is a complex task, especially until a more concrete prognosis is known, and for now Trump only reveals “mild symptoms.” And while Sean Conley, Trump’s doctor, assures that the president “will continue to fulfill his duties” as head of state, Dr. Ashish Jha, quoted by Time, recalls that this “is a serious infection, especially for someone older as he is the case of Mr. Trump “.
The truth is that the positive test of the American president represents one more factor of uncertainty and confusion in the most uncertain and confusing American presidential election in memory. In addition to the pandemic crisis, the United States is going through a period of enormous social instability due to the anti-racist protests caused by the murder of the African American George Floyd.
In addition, there are the serious fires that have kept the west of the country on constant alert for several weeks, particularly California.
It is also presented as something certain that Donald Trump could be sanctioned for being infected by a virus that in addition to being devalued by himself was disastrously handled by his Administration. However, there are also positive elements in the aspirations of the ree-candidate for the presidency.
Negative points for Trump
The first unfavorable aspect is the forced absence of the campaign actions to which Trump will be forced and which will surely prevent him from visiting several of the so-called “swing states”, the most decisive for the final result, including the already canceled trips to Wisconsin. , Nevada and Pennsylvania.
Donald Trump had not abdicated from holding rallies with thousands of people, often without enforcing the rules of distancing, and he is more stimulating than Biden, whose campaign has been much more minimalist and is far from the big gatherings, so now lose. even for a limited period of time, that advantage.
It also creates logistical and personnel management problems for the campaign team and hampers fundraising efforts. After Biden’s campaign hit a monthly money-raising record in September, Trump needs to pursue the loss and his team was betting heavily on face-to-face fundraising events. With Trump isolated, it will be even more difficult to catch up.
As well as the fact that media attention will now be essentially focused on Trump’s health, which tends to reduce his ability to regain the nearly six percentage point disadvantage for Biden that he registers in national polls.
This is because, as Bloomberg writes, the president now wanted to capitalize on issues like his election to the Supreme Court, the ongoing economic recovery, or the need to ensure “law and order” in the context of social unrest. Voters will be even more aware of a pandemic that, according to opinion polls, they believe has been mismanaged by the president.
On the other hand, participation in the second of three debates with Biden, scheduled for October 15, is now uncertain. Faced with the disadvantage for the Democrat, Trump strongly bet on his performances in the debates to get closer at the polls.
The way Donald Trump disparaged Biden during this week’s debate – “I don’t wear masks like him. Whenever we see him, he’s wearing a mask” – due to the former vice president’s precautions, could also work against him.
The president has championed the need to keep the economy running and pushed for a full return to work and school. By seeing the world’s top political incumbent infected with the coronavirus, Americans are less likely to return to normalcy.
And since Trump has always cultivated the image of a strong and energetic man, particularly compared to Biden, any weakness he may feel in overcoming the disease could negatively affect the way his constituency views him.
Positive for Trump
However, there are factors that could benefit Trump’s re-election aspirations. The cautious Biden (77 years old) is expected to retreat further into street action.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro also neglected the severity of COVID-19 and ended up infected, bolstering their popularity after testing positive. This effect can be replicated in the case of Trump, especially if the American president recovers quickly and easily from the disease.
And history shows that voters often reward presidents who are weak for health reasons. For example, after nearly dying in an assassination attempt in 1981, Ronald Reagan was reelected in 1984. It should also be noted that Franklin Roosevelt is the president in history with the most victories in the presidential election (there was still no two-term limit) , in 1932, 1936, 1940 and 1944.
Trump with Covid Biden influences
It will not be only Donald Trump who feels the repercussions of the coronavirus infection. Joe Biden will also have to make adjustments.
Former number two Barack Obama will have to decide immediately if he is in quarantine because by the time of the debate on September 30, Trump would already be infected.
You will still have to decide how to approach the issue, needing to measure your words well, as harsh criticism of a sick Trump could backfire and be frowned upon by voters. That is, you will need to find a balance between legitimate criticism of Trump’s mismanagement of the pandemic and concern about not being overly critical of someone facing a serious illness.
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