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Since mid-July, the number of COVID-19 infections has started to rise steadily in Europe. Looking at the aggregated values of the euro zone countries as a whole, it appears that the number of cases is not yet at the level of what happened in March and April, but it does not bode well for the entry into autumn.
In Portugal there is also an increase in contagion cases, although the situation continues to be below the values reached in the first wave. In each of the past three days, more than 500 new infections have been reported in 24 hours, a maximum since the end of April.
The previous graph (which includes daily data from the 19 countries of the euro zone) shows how Europe is already facing a second wave of covid-19, mainly due to the high values registered in countries with Spain and France.
The evolution in each country is more visible in the following graph, where you can see the daily evolution of covid-19 cases by country.
Economic recovery uncertain
For now, the increase in the number of cases has not yet been reflected in an equally significant increase in mortality, but no one knows what winter will bring. Given the uncertainty about the pandemic, economic activity has already begun to suffer, especially in the services sector, and prudence is prevailing.
Even if the mortality of the virus is now more contained, without a vaccine ready, the increase in cases of covidity is reflected in the pace of the economy. The strength of the recovery remains surrounded by significant uncertainty as it continues to depend heavily on the evolution of the pandemic and the success of containment measures, Christine Lagarde said Thursday after the ECB meeting.
The next scenario
Nobody knows what the last quarter of this year holds, winter. But caution is everywhere. According to Bloomberg, Lagarde’s choice of words to characterize the economic recovery was not unanimous among the governors of the ECB. There were those who argued that the president should be more optimistic and assertive about the momentum of the recovery, but she overcame caution.
In fact, when he announced the improvement in the projection of the ECB experts for the Eurozone (from a recession of 8.7% to 8%), Lagarde insisted that the report also has the most pessimistic scenario, which assumes a greater impact . of the pandemic, and said the risks are to the downside. In the worst case, the ECB anticipates a 10% recession.
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