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“We already hit rock bottom.” These were the first words of the Minister of State and Finance, João Leão, when Vítor Gonçalves, in the program Grande Intervista of RTP3, where the governor granted the first interview since he succeeded Mário Centeno in office, questioned him about the phase of crisis we are going through. “Have we hit rock bottom or is the worst yet to come?” Asked the reporter. João Leão was peremptory.
After all, it was the numbers that said it, not him. In the second quarter of the year, during which the lockdown period occurred and a state of emergency was declared, the economy fell 16%. In the last quarter, “there were signs of a recovery a bit above expectations,” he confessed, citing the number of ATM payments as an example, “the most advanced indicator we have” and that during the pandemic fell by 40%. and that has now been stable.
João Leão said that especially in July and August there was a recovery “slightly higher than expected”, adding that the income of the IRS for August, after sharp falls in previous months, had a year-on-year increase of 7%, an increase that was corrected for extraordinary effects it was 1%.
“What we understand is that the third quarter that was better than we had anticipated, our forecast is that the fourth quarter will not be as good as we had anticipated. […] We estimate that there would be a slight year-on-year drop in the fourth quarter, close to 4%. It is too early to conclude, the situation is very uncertain, “she explained.
However, none of this can give rise to a concrete forecast in the short term, since “the economy will depend on the evolution of the pandemic” and we live in “moments of great uncertainty”, with the minister giving as an example “some European countries the pandemic. ” it is evolving even worse than expected. “
If the economy has already bottomed out, unemployment is the worst to come, following the dictates proposed by the interviewer. “In terms of employment and unemployment, the worst has not yet passed and we are going to have a relatively high period of unemployment that can reach values close to 9/10% both this year and next,” said the minister.
Asked about how much the pandemic “cost”, João Leão revealed that, “if we think about the most direct measures in terms of spending, we have already implemented, and now I am talking until July, another 1,100 million euros related to the pandemic.” The vast majority of expenses are related to social security, family support and health.
“I think the Budget will be approved”
Regarding the State Budget for 2021, which is nearing the final stage of the negotiation phase, João Leão escapes controversy to say “I think the Budget will be approved”, assuming however the difficulties that come there. “It is natural that these budgets are a demanding negotiation, because they are parties that all have their priorities and want those priorities to be reflected in the EO. It is always a demanding negotiation, but we have been able to reach a compromise in recent years,” he said .
“Significant” minimum wage increase in 2021
Regarding next year, the minister also defended that next year there should be room to increase the national minimum wage “meaningfully”, after a negotiation in the Social Agreement.
“Our intention is, next year, to continue with the dialogue that has to be done in the Social Concert, with the increase in the minimum wage and that there is a significant increase,” he said.
João Leão stressed that “there were sectors that were greatly affected” by the crisis of the covid-19 pandemic “and that there are” many workers “who earn the minimum wage, currently 635 euros, but the Government believes that” there must be space “to increase the minimum remuneration.
Asked if the increase in 2021 could be at the level of what was applied this year, of 35 euros, the minister has stressed, however, that “the world has changed” with the pandemic and that, therefore, it will be necessary to evaluate the situation of companies.
Regarding the salaries of the public administration, João Leão affirmed that in 2021 there will be an increase of more than 2% of the salary mass due to the progressions and the recovery of the time of service of teachers and special careers.
