WARSAW – President Andrzej Duda narrowly won reelection this week, using the same playbook that brought his Law and Justice party to power five years ago: fueling fear and blaming an enemy.
In 2015, it was an enemy on the doorstep: migrants, who according to party leaders carried “all kinds of parasites,” threatened the nation.
This time, it was an internal enemy: gay men and lesbians living in Poland, Duda said, were promoting an ideology “more dangerous than communism.”
Mr. Duda won by a narrow margin in the closest elections in the country since the end of the communist government in 1989. But the bitter campaign against his opponent, Rafal Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw, exposed old divisions and created new divisions. in Poland. that they are unlikely to go away anytime soon.
“This choice focused on internal conflict and internal division,” said Andrzej Leder, professor of sociology at the Polish Academy of Sciences. “And the level of polarization was impressive.”
The optimism received by Mr. Trzaskowski’s campaign has been replaced by despair among his supporters, and those who feel they were targeted by Mr. Duda’s homophobic language fear what may come.
“I am terrified of Duda’s words,” said Kamil Tkaczyk, a 27-year-old hairdresser in Warsaw, who is gay. “Together with my partner we are considering migrating to a country that would not only be free from prejudice, but above all, where we could feel safe,” he said.
Tkaczyk and others opposed to the government say the recent elections were not just about safeguarding democracy in Poland, where the Law and Justice Party has reviewed the country’s courts in a way that critics say undermines the state. of law.
It was also about defending the country’s place in Europe and the world.
While government supporters point to the generous social welfare programs that have helped bridge economic inequality in Poland, many of those who voted for Trzaskowski blame Duda’s campaign for solidifying the political polarization that has been established across the country. .
“Politics is getting really brutal again,” said Mr. Leder, the professor. “Although the ruling party won politically, it did not win culturally,” he added. “The government knows that these are the last years that they can really try to change the mindset of the country.”
Party leaders have already signaled that they plan to move forward with proposals that would silence critics, put pressure on academic institutions, and exercise even more control over the courts. In April, the European Union Court of Justice ordered the suspension of a new disciplinary chamber of the Polish Supreme Court, which has a politically selected membership and extraordinary powers to prosecute judges who oppose the government.
Some of the country’s most influential and non-partisan media are owned by foreign companies, such as Ringier Axel Springer, a German publisher. During the campaign, Duda warned of a “German attack” in the elections and criticized the Warsaw correspondent for the German newspaper Die Welt.
Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the party’s leader, said on Tuesday that “the media in Poland should be Polish.” Mr. Kaczynski also told the Polish Press Agency that the government planned to “take action” to ensure that the media covered the news “in a more realistic way.”
Mr. Leder, who opposes the Law and Justice party, said people under the age of 50 sent a clear message to the ruling party by completely rejecting Mr. Duda and his campaign.
Younger urban voters overwhelmingly supported Trzaskowski, whose campaign nearly ousted a sitting president with a number of advantages, including the use of state media and the help of prominent supporters within the Catholic clergy, as well as President Trump.
Trzaskowski won Warsaw with 68 percent of the vote. It also won voters from 40 to 59 years old by 10 points, those from 30 to 39 by 11 points and those from 18 to 29 by almost 30 points. Duda easily beat the mayor of Warsaw with voters over 50 by almost 20 points and those over 60 by 25 points. Mr. Duda’s supporters were also found mainly in the eastern and southern regions of the country, where the economy still lags behind.
Cezary Tomczyk, the head of Mr. Trzaskowski’s campaign team, said they planned to file a formal protest with the Supreme Court that disputes the election results. But few hope that the challenge will lead to any action or change the outcome, given the party’s control over the courts.
Jan Grabiec, a spokesman for the opposition Civic Coalition party, said they were also reviewing the complaints, especially regarding ballots issued outside the country, which were handled by the government.
“What happened abroad is a huge scandal,” said Grabiec. “Wherever the election was organized by the National Electoral Commission, it was more or less acceptable. But where it was organized by people subject to the government, it was a disaster, ”he said.
Marcin Matczak, a constitutional scholar who has opposed changes to the judiciary made by Law and Justice, said there is now a systemic problem with the courts.
“The key function of the courts is to resolve social conflicts in a civilized manner,” he said. “After what Law and Justice did to the judiciary, the Supreme Court that will issue the decision on the validity of the election can no longer fulfill this function.”
Many in the country will not respect the court’s decision, no matter how it is ruled.
The conflict “over the fairness of the presidential elections will continue rather than be resolved by the Supreme Court,” said Mr. Matczak. “Bad emotions will intensify, divisions will grow. This is what happens to a society deprived of an independent judiciary. “
Since he declared victory, Mr. Duda has been conciliatory. “It was a tough campaign, sometimes probably too tough,” he said Monday. “If anyone was offended by my words, I ask you to forgive me. And to give me another five years to improve. “
His guarantees are unlikely to satisfy Zbigniew Maraszek, a 53-year-old high school teacher from Plonsk, a city of 20,000 inhabitants in central Poland. Maraszek said the government had created an atmosphere that had become “unbearable”. His wife, Katarzyna, a 47-year-old university teacher, blamed the government for “weaponizing” the Catholic Church in the party’s fight against homosexuality.
“I consider myself a Catholic, but I find it unacceptable,” she said.
Still, despite her strong support for Mr. Trzaskowski, Ms. Maraszek was unable to convince her mother to change her mind at the polls.
Her mother said she voted for Mr. Duda.
Monika Pronczuk and Anatol Magdziarz contributed reports.
