And so, JT Realmuto becomes the best free agent on the market.
The Dodgers are reportedly closing a contract with Mookie Betts worth nearly $ 400 million over a span of 13 years, a deal that will challenge Mike Trout’s for the richest man in baseball history. (The additional part to Trout’s existing deal a year ago totaled $ 360 million over 10 years.)
With Betts soon off the board, Realmuto will headline this winter’s class if he gets there. Recent trading accounts from Realmuto and Phillies general manager Matt Klentak have certainly not painted an extension as imminent.
It is the first time in decades, perhaps the first time, that the Phillies will enter a season with the player set to head that winter’s free agent class. They extended Cole Hamels in mid-2012, but Hamels would have been behind Zack Greinke in that class. They traded Scott Rolen during their year of walking, but Rolen would have been behind Jim Thome that winter if he had reached free agency. There was one season left on Curt Schilling’s contract the summer he was traded.
While Betts and Realmuto are completely different players, this deal should only increase the value of the next Realmuto contract. On the one hand, it shows that there is still a ton of money to be spent by the contending teams. COVID-19’s impact on baseball’s finances doesn’t appear to result in a minor deal for Betts, so it shouldn’t be for Realmuto.
From Realmuto’s perspective, if the magic number was $ 125 million or so before baseball closed, it should still be the number.
From a luxury tax perspective, the Phillies have at least $ 58 million coming out of their books this offseason with the expired contracts of Jake Arrieta, Didi Gregorius, David Robertson and Realmuto himself. So they have the leeway to reach an agreement, they need to reach an agreement, and the belief here is that they still be make a deal
However, it’s going to cost more than the Phillies’ main office could have thought in early July.
The list of teams capable of signing Realmuto for what he’s worth this winter isn’t long, especially in a year like this, when most teams will adjust their offseason strategies. The Dodgers showed that it can still happen, but not all teams are as rich and ready to win as the Dodgers. In fact, the Dodgers themselves are a threat to sign Realmuto. They have a main office that covets a full skill set like Realmuto’s, and they need to find some way to capture the World Series that has managed to elude them since 1988 despite 12 years of at least 90 wins and 13 playoff appearances in those 31 seasons.
The Dodgers have $ 20 million coming out of their books this winter with Justin Turner alone, and his fancy tax figure for Betts will increase by just over $ 8 million this year to next. Then they will have the ability to offer Realmuto a luxurious treat … unless his 25-year-old catcher and former first-round pick Will Smith can prove that he is the real deal. Smith had a solid rookie season, but he hit .182 in his last 100 plate appearances.
The Mets have long been connected to Realmuto. They are in an interesting place, as they are expected to be sold soon. If that sale falls before free agency, the new group of owners could try to impress Realmuto. Or, a new group of owners could use a more measured approach for a team that has suffered heavy financial losses in recent years.
The Yankees are always a threat to the best player in the free-agent market. They have a 27-year-old two-star All-Star receiver at Gary Sanchez, but Sanchez is not JT. He has more power than Realmuto, but he hits about 30 fewer points and his reception and framing have been problems during his four … years with the Yankees. It will also become more expensive in the next two years, his last two of arbitration eligibility.
Here’s a nugget worth remembering, as it relates to both the Yankees and the Mets with Realmuto:
An idea of how far #Marlins got in this process: when #Yankees before this offseason were trying to get Realmuto to turn to #Mets for Syndergaard, Mia requested Gary Sanchez and Miguel Andujar.
– Joel Sherman (@ Joelsherman1) February 7, 2019
Beyond Realmuto, this winter’s top free agents will be outfielder George Springer, infielder DJ LeMahieu, and starting pitchers Trevor Bauer, Robbie Ray, James Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka. It is not a deep class, specifically for position players.
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