[ad_1]
(CNN) – At first glance, the outlook doesn’t look too bleak. While reported coronavirus cases are reaching record levels as Europe wears a “second wave,” deaths are still well below their peak in April.
But experts warn that the signs point to more tragedies this winter.
European hospitals are now better equipped to treat Covid-19. Measures such as social distancing and the use of masks have become the norm and the latest spread of the infection has been mainly among younger people, who are less likely to die if they contract the virus.
However, it is getting cold and flu season is approaching. The infection is spreading to older populations and there are signs that people are getting weary of complying with the restrictions.
“Obviously we don’t have any way to stop Covid from circulating, other than lockdowns or social distancing measures etc, we don’t have a vaccine yet,” said Michael Head, senior researcher in global health at the University of Southampton’s UK, he told CNN.
While he does not expect deaths to reach the levels seen in the first wave, Head added: “We will see a large spread of cases, we will see many hospitalizations and a great burden on our health service.
“There will also be a large death toll.”
From young to old
Coronavirus cases reported in Europe hit a record 52,418 in an average of seven days on Tuesday, according to CNN’s analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University. But only 556 new deaths were reported, compared to a height of 4,134 daily deaths (out of 31,852 cases) from the seven-day average on April 10.
That compares with a seven-day average of 44,547 cases and 722 deaths Tuesday in North America, which has a population of 366 million compared to Europe’s 750 million.
Hospitals can now better diagnose and treat the virus, which means that ICU patient mortality rates in some European countries have dropped from about 50% during the spring to about 20%, Head estimates.
But Bulgaria, Croatia, Malta, Romania and Spain have seen sustained increases in the death rate.
In the first week of September, the highest proportion of new cases was still among people aged 25 to 49, according to the World Health Organization Europe Director Hans Kluge. But there was also an increase in cases in the oldest age groups, from 50 to 79 years old.
Head warned that the increase in cases “will eventually translate into infections in older populations that have higher death rates.”
“We are seeing case rates in older populations and vulnerable populations increase again in all European countries,” he said. “So it’s a very predictable pattern actually, that in the UK and France or Spain we’ve seen younger populations affected, and then four to six weeks later … we’re starting to see older people infected.”
Head added that more cases in the community mean more opportunities for the virus to enter institutions like nursing homes, with “a large increase in outbreaks in nursing homes here in the UK, over the last month or so.”
Loading in hospitals
The arrival of the flu season is also a “great concern” due to the possible burden on health services, Head said. France, which reported its biggest daily increase in case numbers of 13,498 last Saturday, saw the number of people in intensive care increase 25% last week.
Deaths are not the only problem. Pressure on hospitals is also increased by the number of “long-distance carriers,” those who suffer the adverse effects of the coronavirus more than a month after becoming ill. “Even in the youngest people who are fit, we still see 10-20% have longer-term consequences beyond the initial infection,” Head said.
He said this would mean “more stress on the health services in the coming months and indeed in the next few years.”
Peter Drobac, a global health physician and director of the Skoll Center for Social Entrepreneurship at the University of Oxford, told CNN that it would be “irresponsible” if Europe allowed the death rate to return to April levels.
He said that while “we have not detected any kind of seasonal pattern with this particular virus,” the real risk is that cold weather could force people to return indoors, where transmission is most likely.
While most countries now have increased testing capacity, Drobac said that “increased testing does not explain the increase in cases that we are seeing in most settings,” as we are also seeing a higher percentage of tests that are positive.
“It is clear that we are losing control of this,” he said.
“We know enough about how the virus behaves, how it is transmitted, how to control it, how to treat it when people are infected, so that we can make sure that the second wave of infections is not devastatingly large, because that is ultimately, what will lead to higher death toll is when health systems start to overwhelm. “
‘The perfect Storm’
The focus of the second wave of infections varies across Europe. Leaders are trying to balance protecting public health with avoiding catastrophic economic damage from national lockdowns.
Spain registered a record 14,389 daily cases last Friday. In Madrid, which accounts for a third of their cases, residents of 37 areas can only leave their homes to go to work, school or for medical reasons, and parks and playgrounds were closed as of Monday.
The UK, which reported its highest number of cases since April on Wednesday, has restricted gatherings to six people and will close pubs and restaurants at 10 p.m. The Czech Republic, which reported a record number of coronavirus infections on Friday, reintroduced the indoor mask requirements earlier this year. month.
“The bottom line is that the second wave is already here in many countries in Europe,” Drobac said. “Our actions in the next two weeks, and throughout the winter, will be critical to stopping the spread, but if we don’t get it under control soon, particularly in places like the UK, Spain and France right now, we will certainly see an increase in deaths “.
Drobac said Europe needs to once again “flatten the curve” through hygiene and social distancing measures, as well as strong evidence and contact tracing.
He believes it is “unlikely” that countries will return to the full national lockdowns that were a common focus in the spring, in part due to public resistance or fatigue with restrictions. “I think it will be difficult to get political and public support for it. I think it will be difficult to enforce and people are tired,” he said.
“In many ways, we think winter could be a perfect storm. So I wish we could have used our summer much better, to really squash the virus and make sure we were in a better position.”
This story was first published on CNN.com. Will the second European wave of Covid-19 cases mean a second large death toll?
[ad_2]
