Will PH talk about the government of the sea? Skeptical analysts

MANILA, Philippines – President Rodrigo Duterte’s assertion of the Philippines’ legal victory over China over its broad territorial claims over the South China Sea has drawn mixed reactions from foreign policy observers.

“This measure should not be taken lightly,” said Julio Amador III, principal investigator at the Ateneo School of Government, after the president told world leaders at the United Nations General Assembly on Wednesday that the Philippines “firmly rejects “Any attempt to undermine the 2016 arbitration award that invalidated China’s extensive claims on the South China Sea.

Amador said that Duterte, in his first speech at the UN meeting, “has cemented the Philippines’ commitment to international law by elevating the 2016 arbitral tribunal decision to the UN.”

While noting that the previous Aquino administration won the case, the Duterte administration said, “has now made it a fundamental tenet of Philippine foreign policy, from which there will be no turning back.”

‘Follow this line’

“Future administrations will have to follow this line,” he said.

In July 2016, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague annulled China’s extensive claims in the South China Sea when it ruled in a maritime case brought by the Philippines. But Duterte shelved the victory in favor of China’s economic investments.

Jeffrey Ordaniel, director of Maritime Programs at Pacific Forum, a Hawaii-based foreign policy research institute, said Duterte’s assertion of the arbitration award was “a step in the right direction,” but remained skeptical. “If the Philippines was being strategic, it should continue to reinforce the importance of the 2016 arbitration award at every opportunity. But I would warn the optimists, ”Ordaniel said.

“It’s one of two things: Duterte’s speech to the UN marked a shift in the Philippine president’s approach, one that, from now on, is expected to increasingly emphasize the primacy of international law, or that speech was primarily the work of the Department of Foreign Relations, and that contradictory and spontaneous comments are coming, ”he said.

Support from ASEAN members

The president had often been criticized for his allegedly defeatist stance on the maritime dispute and his pro-China policies.

It should now strive to enlist the support of key members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to support the Philippines’ efforts, said Euan Graham, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies-Asia.

“Asean members are not yet willing to mention it directly in the summit communiqués. That was always going to be over the top when the Duterte administration seemed to play softball too, ”he said.

“After four years of putting the award in his back pocket and failing to take advantage of it with Beijing, Mr. Duterte seems finally ready to own it … Now that Manila is behind him again, getting key members of the Asean backing him publicly should be the focus of the Philippines’ diplomatic efforts, ”Graham said.

“It does not appear to have received the international attention it could have.”

Maritime expert Jay Batongbacal, professor and director of the Institute of Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea at the University of the Philippines, said it remains to be seen how the Duterte administration would do what is claimed.

‘Maximum leverage’

“How the administration follows up on this statement is even more important to show that this is not just a political stunt,” Batongbacal said.

“It’s the right thing to do, but it’s not the only thing to do,” he added.

Batongbacal said Duterte could have raised the award in 2017 when it could have been used for “maximum leverage” and the Philippines had the ability to lead.

“We must bear in mind that from 2016 to yesterday, China [had] made great strides in the Western Philippine Sea by adapting the PH to its demands. Raising the award a bit late has made it more difficult to reject China’s efforts, “she said.

The United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and other Western powers have voiced their views in rebutting China’s extensive claims in the South China Sea and invoking the 2016 arbitration award.

Batongbacal said Duterte may have realized that now was the “right time” to present the award, as the Philippines was already behind other nations.

“You probably think it’s safe to do it now because the Philippines doesn’t have to take a chance first,” he said.

The Philippines, he said, missed an opportunity to be at the forefront.

“The leverage would not only be with respect to China, but also with countries from which we could get support. We could have a greater influence on events, ”he said.

Instead, we are essentially acting when our actions and options have been limited / defined by the geopolitical contest between the United States and China, which means that the options are really limited. We have to maneuver between the two powers, rather than defining the path for ourselves, ”Batongbacal said.

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