Whoever wins, don’t expect a strong mandate, says US pollster

Whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden win America’s tense presidential race, neither of them will win a strong mandate, according to an American pollster.

“No matter who wins this presidential election, there is no strong mandate for either the Biden leadership or the Trump leadership,” said John Zogby, public opinion pollster and founder of Zogby Strategies, Wednesday night Manila).

“Or he will face almost half of the electorate who not only didn’t vote for him, but for the most part, really can’t stand it or what it stands for,” Zogby told participants at the US Foreign Press Center Tour. virtual reporting on the 2020 US elections, which included the Inquirer.

Zogby made his comments when election results showed that Biden led Trump in the race to get the required 270 votes from the U.S. Electoral College. At the time, Michigan and Wisconsin had not yet been declared the last states won by Biden.

At press time on Friday, US news agencies counted 253 electoral votes for Biden to 213 for Trump, leaving the Democratic Party standard-bearer 17 votes short of wresting the presidency from his Republican Party counterpart.

Americans elect their president through a 538-member electoral college. While they go out to vote or send their ballots, the presidential candidate wins with the votes of the states and not with the popular vote. A presidential candidate needs 270 out of 538 votes to win.

‘A disaster’

With the votes of those who voted before the Nov.3 election (by mail or absentee ballot) yet to be counted, Zogby said the winner would be known at the earliest on Thursday (Friday in Manila) or possibly Friday. , or even Saturday.

But Zogby pointed out that a vote recount could occur in some states, thus postponing the results for a few more days. He also cited Trump’s speech Tuesday night in which the president said he would challenge the existence and counting of many of the absentee ballots.

“What we have then potentially and probably is a disaster,” Zogby said.

In fact, Trump’s attorneys have filed lawsuits in Pennsylvania and Michigan demanding that the count be stopped until their campaign observers can reach the locations where the count was taking place.

Zogby said polls, including his, projected a “great blue wave,” or people who normally voted Democrats and would first vote as Democrats before Nov. 3. He said this had materialized, as well as the “big wave red wave,” or Republican voters on the day of the election.

“Regarding the ballot count, we knew there was a big blue wave before the election and a big red wave on election day,” he said, adding that it would only be now that the votes cast by Democratic voters would be counted. .

Saying that they had also expected large voter turnout, Zogby said that at least 150 million Americans voted in this election, or an “additional” 12 million voters from the 2016 presidential race.

“Where did they come from? They actually came from constituencies on both sides,” he said.

Of those who voted Nov. 3, 38 percent were Democrats, 34 percent identified themselves as Republicans, and 20 percent were independent or nonpartisan.

Why Trump did well

Explaining why Trump did well in the polls, Zogby said the number one reason voters cited in the vote was the economy, which was the president’s campaign line. Trump got 80 percent of their support. He also won over those who said America needed a strong leader.

Polls also showed that those who voted for Trump were the ones who decided on their candidate at the last minute.

On the other hand, Biden won the support of those who said the second main issue in the vote was racial inequality, as well as the problem that the coronavirus pandemic needed to be managed before the economy could be rebuilt.

Looking at the way voters cast their votes, Zogby said both Trump and Biden “kept their expected constituencies.”

But he pointed to certain “key elements” that were “worth knowing” about the election result.

These included the fact that Biden did much better than Trump and even Hillary Clinton in 2016, as more men and women voted for him. It also garnered more votes from blacks, Hispanics, and Asians, as well as voters ages 18-29.

On the other hand, Trump won more white voters, over 65 and evangelicals.

Zogby also said that it appeared that Biden was winning the popular vote as he led it by about 2 percentage points, or 50 percent, against Trump’s 48 percent.

He said Biden could end up winning the popular vote by 3 percentage points, compared to Clinton’s victory of 2.5 percentage points in 2016.

2 conclusions

With the presidential race so close, Zogby said two conclusions could be drawn immediately: “No matter who wins, we can draw the conclusion that Donald Trump was not repudiated by the public. We can also conclude that Joe Biden, if he wins, will not get strong support from the voting public. “

Zogby also pointed out that a Biden presidency would have to work in a divided Congress, as Democrats still had to win enough seats to form a majority in Congress.

“If Joe Biden wins, he is committed to building a national community, to get to the other side. He has a history of doing that, ‘”Zogby said, adding that he expected Trump to do the same in victory.

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