UK variant of coronavirus: what we know and what we don’t

At an emergency meeting of the UK Parliament’s Science and Technology Committee, Horby explained that the new variant has “some kind of biological advantage in spreading faster.”

Scientists don’t yet have a complete picture of why, he said, but there were a few different scenarios they were investigating.

There is preliminary evidence to suggest that the new strain results in a person having a higher viral load, which means the virus is easier to transmit, Horby said.

Another possibility is that people become infected more quickly after exposure, he said. It’s also possible, he added, that people are infectious for longer.

However, all these possible explanations lead to the same conclusion: the virus is spreading faster.

England’s chief medical officer Chris Whitty has said the variant contains 23 changes, including 17 key “non-synonymous” mutations.

“These [17] they’re the ones that change the protein sequence of one of the viral genes, “said Jeffrey Barrett, Covid-19 lead statistical geneticist at the Wellcome Sanger Institute in the UK, according to the Science Media Center.

The World Health Organization said Tuesday that these mutations “may influence the transmissibility of the virus in humans,” although it added that more laboratory research is needed.

Scientist Neil Ferguson, a member of NERVTAG, said Monday that the variant may be more infectious for children. “There is a clue is that [the variant] … has a higher propensity to infect children, “he told a news conference organized by the Science Media Center (SMC), although he cautioned that more data was needed. Serious illness due to Covid-19 remains relatively rare In the kids.

The findings have immediate implications for virus control. Higher numbers of cases could put even greater strain on hospitals and healthcare workers just as they enter an already particularly difficult winter period and would ultimately lead to more deaths.

Where did the variant originate and how has it taken hold?

The new variant is believed to have originated in southeastern England, according to the WHO. Public Health England (PHE) says that backtracking, using genetic evidence, suggests that the variant first emerged in England in September. It then circulated at very low levels until mid-November.

“The increase in cases related to the new variant first came to light in late November when PHE was investigating why infection rates in Kent [in southeast England] they did not fall despite national restrictions. We then discovered a group linked to this variant that was spreading rapidly to London and Essex, “said PHE.

But Sharon Peacock, a professor of public health and microbiology at the University of Cambridge, said scientists did not know whether the mutation had originated in the south-east of England or whether it had been introduced there from elsewhere.

At a press conference Tuesday, Peacock also praised the strength of the UK’s genetic surveillance operation. “If you are going to find [a variant] anywhere, you’ll probably find it here first, “he said.” And if this happens in places that don’t have any sequence, you won’t find it at all unless you’re using [other methods.]”

Whitty said on Saturday that the variant was responsible for 60% of new infections in London, which have almost doubled in the last week alone.

Some experts have suggested that this new variant could have been amplified due to a superpreader event, meaning that the current spike in cases could also have been caused by human behavior.

“When we started to see this huge increase, it could have been a number of things. It could have been [due to] changes in behavior, “Judith Breuer, professor of virology at UCL, said during a briefing on Tuesday.

“[But now] it is very clear that there is a significant increase in the prevalence of this variant and that this is likely due to the biological characteristics of the variant and, indeed, to increased transmissibility. “

What countries are affected?

The variant has already spread globally. In addition to the United Kingdom, the variant has also been detected in Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands and Australia, according to the WHO.

Australia has identified two cases of the variant in a quarantined area in Sydney and Italy has also identified a patient infected with the variant.

A similar but separate variant has also been identified in South Africa, where scientists say it is spreading rapidly along the country’s coastal areas.

On Wednesday, British health authorities said two cases of the South African variant had been detected in the UK. Public Health England Managing Director Susan Hopkins said the Covid-19 variants discovered in the UK and South Africa are both “more transmissible.”

Is it the deadliest new variant?

At the moment, there is no evidence to suggest that the new variant is more deadly, according to Whitty and the WHO, although it is too early to tell.

Several experts have pointed out that, in some cases, mutations in the virus that increase transmissibility are accompanied by a decrease in virulence and mortality rates.

“As viruses are transmitted, those that allow greater virological ‘success’ can be selected, which changes the properties of the virus over time. This generally leads to greater transmission and less virulence,” Martin Hibberd, professor of emerging infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, he told SMC.

Will the vaccines developed against this variant work?

There are no signs yet that current pioneering vaccines won’t work against this new variant, experts and drug makers have said.

The companies behind the first two vaccines to be licensed in the US, Pfizer / BioNTech and Moderna, are testing their vaccines to verify that they are effective against the variant.

The coronavirus has mutated before, and both companies say their vaccines worked against other variations of the virus.

BioNTech CEO Ugur Sahin said he has “scientific confidence” that the current Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine could work against the new variant, but full data will be available in two weeks.

Some scientists in the US have said this new variant may, to a small extent, undermine vaccines.

Trevor Bedford, associate professor in the division of vaccines and infectious diseases at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, said: “You could imagine a modest impact on the efficacy of the vaccine, which would not be good, but I don’t think it will break. the vaccine “.

Bedford explained that the variant could possibly reduce the effectiveness of the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine by 95%, which would be a “modest effect, not a dramatic effect.”

BioNTech’s Sahin said that the new variant may, however, require countries to vaccinate more populations, raising the bar for herd immunity.

“[On] “The issue of herd immunity is always up for discussion about 60-70%,” he said at a news conference Tuesday. “But if the virus becomes more efficient at infecting people, we may even need a high vaccination rate to ensure that normal life continues without interruption.”

What steps are being taken to contain the variant?

Large swaths of England, including London and the South East, are now under strict Level 4 Covid-19 restrictions, and UK government health experts have suggested that additional restrictions might be required to reject this variant.

Dozens of countries in Europe, the Middle East and the Americas have also announced travel bans for the UK or new testing and quarantine requirements for arrivals to the UK.

The White House is considering requiring travelers from the UK to provide proof of a negative test before arriving in the United States, two administration officials told CNN.

In the UK, new measures to combat the possible spread of the South African variant were announced on Wednesday, and travelers arriving in the UK from South Africa are now required to be quarantined for 15 days upon arrival. People in the UK who have been in contact with people arriving from South Africa in the last 15 days have also been instructed to immediately quarantine themselves.

In its press release on Tuesday, the WHO issued a reminder of basic measures to reduce the transmission of the virus: avoid close contact with infected people, wash hands frequently and wear a mask.