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None of that seemed to dramatically alter the fundamental position in which the candidates find themselves. President Donald Trump enters the final six weeks of the election season as the underdog, as Joe Biden maintains his lead both domestically and in many of the critical battlefield states that will determine the outcome and how he completely erased. the fundraising advantage that the incumbent had accumulated earlier this year.
Ginsburg’s death and the immediate supercharged political struggle over his successor are the latest impact on the campaign environment, and now we hope to see if that has a real impact on the structure of the battle between Trump and Biden, which thus far, has shaped. to be a referendum on the president’s first term in office, particularly his handling of the coronavirus.
In our new electoral college perspective, we have made four moves: three of them in the direction of Biden, one of them toward Trump. As always, we base this perspective on public and private polls, the strategic bets that campaigns with tens of millions of ad dollars are making, where Trump and Biden and their high-level surrogates spend most of their time, and in conversations with state and national political operatives, elected officials and advisers to both campaigns.
The battle for 270 electoral votes takes place largely in 14 states and two electoral districts. These are made up of true battlefield states combined with states that lean slightly in the direction of one side or the other.
Biden continues to show real strength with suburban voters, independent voters, women, seniors, college-educated white voters, and voters of color and even has a decent foothold among white voters without college education. That demographic portfolio is what is helping Biden’s team move both Wisconsin and Arizona, two of the most critical states on the board, out of that true battleground category that Democrats now lean toward. After seeing the battle for the single electoral vote in Nebraska’s second congressional district (Omaha area) become much more involved in the last month, it has become clear that this contest is no longer a narrower Republican contest but a field of direct battle.
Biden’s building blocks up to 270 start with a solid base of 203 electoral votes from 16 states and the District of Columbia. When you add the 66 electoral votes leaning in your direction, you bring your total to 269 electoral votes, just 1 short of winning the presidency.
The only move we are making in the direction of the president is the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania as we spend its 20 electoral votes from leaning Democrats to a direct battlefield. Of the three so-called blue wall states that Trump tore down four years ago, Pennsylvania may be the best testing ground for the Trump team to pursue their theory of the case that it may produce a massive turnout of primarily white men with no college education. voters to achieve another victory in a state that had been a Democrat for more than a generation in presidential campaigns prior to 2016.
However, Pennsylvania may end up being the most temporary of all these moves. Polls there clearly show a slight advantage for Biden, and the state’s demographics play to some of his unique strengths this election season. Last week’s court rulings that prevented the Green Party candidate from appearing on the ballot and extended the window to receive absentee ballots after Election Day so that they are still counted, were also welcome developments for Democrats in this state. However, both the Trump and Biden campaigns believe that Pennsylvania will be a hotly contested state until Election Day, so we’ve moved it to our battlefield category for now.
On his way to 270 electoral votes, Trump begins with a solid base of 125 electoral votes from 20 states that are most likely to go unopposed in the fall. When he combines that base of strong states with the 44 additional electoral votes currently leaning in his direction, Trump’s total comes to 169 electoral votes, 101 votes away from reelection.
That leaves us with five states and two electoral districts with a total value of 100 electoral votes that will likely be decisive in selecting the direction the country is headed for the next four years: Florida, Georgia, Maine’s second congressional district. , the second congressional district of Nebraska, North Carolina, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
If Trump leads the table and wins the 100 electoral votes currently in our battlefield category and Biden wins every state we currently have, either solidly or leaning in his direction, it would be a 269-269 tie and he will head to the House of Representatives to be resolved. Clearly that’s not a likely outcome, but this is 2020 so buckle up.
Solid Republican:
Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Montana (3), Nebraska (4), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Utah (6), West Virginia (5 ), Wyoming (3) (125 total)
Leans towards Republicans:
Iowa (6), Texas (38) (44 total)
Battlefield states:
Florida (29), Georgia (16), Second Congressional District of Maine (1), Second Congressional District of Nebraska (1), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20) (100 total)
Democratic Leans:
Arizona (11), Colorado (9), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), New Hampshire (4), Nevada (6), Wisconsin (10) (66 total)
Solid Democrat:
California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), DC (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New Jersey (14) , New Mexico (5), New York (29), Oregon (7), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Virginia (13), Washington (12) (203 total)
