Trump is considering a measure that would prolong Yemen’s misery

Editor’s Note: Mohamad Bazzi (@BazziNYU) is a professor of journalism at New York University and a former head of the Middle East bureau at Newsday, where he was the lead writer on the 2003 Iraq war and its aftermath. He is a non-resident member of Democracy for the Arab World Now. The opinions expressed in this comment are yours. Read more opinion on CNN.

(CNN) – In one of its final foreign policy acts before leaving office, the Trump administration is considering designating Yemen’s Houthi movement as a foreign terrorist organization. The move is part of a campaign by President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to impose more sanctions on Iran and its allies in the Middle East, and to create new obstacles that would make it difficult for the incoming Joe Biden administration to resume negotiations with Tehran. .

But beyond geopolitical maneuvers, this designation could prolong Yemen’s brutal civil war and lead millions of Yemenis to starvation. Yemen is already facing what UNICEF calls the world’s largest humanitarian crisis, with around 80% of the population, more than 24 million people, in need of food and other aid. On November 20, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres warned that Yemen was “in imminent danger of suffering the worst famine the world has seen in decades.” He added: “In the absence of immediate action, millions of lives can be lost.”

If the Trump administration goes ahead with the designation of Houthi rebels as terrorists, the UN and many international humanitarian groups would likely stop delivering aid to Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen for fear of conflict with the United States. The Houthis, allies of Iran, control an important territory in Yemen that is home to 70% of the population, including the capital, Sana’a, its airport and a major seaport in the city of Hodeidah.

Yemen’s war has been a complex conflict for years, but it escalated dramatically in September 2014 when the Houthi militia, whose base of support is in the northwest of the country, marched on the capital. The Houthis continued on to the southern city of Aden and forced the internationally recognized government of Yemen to flee to Saudi Arabia.

In March 2015, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two of Washington’s closest allies in the Arab world, intervened in the war with massive airstrikes and a blockade of Houthi-controlled areas. The Saudis and Emiratis received weapons and intelligence support from the Obama administration.

Since taking office in 2017, Trump has repeatedly stated that he wants to end America’s involvement in foreign wars, especially in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. But that desire to pull the US out of foreign conflicts has not spread to Yemen, where the Trump administration has tried to appease Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which have bought billions of dollars in American weapons. Trump’s policies prolonged the suffering of millions of Yemenis and fit into his administration’s obsession with countering Iran’s influence in the Middle East.

Trump and his advisers blamed the war on Iran and its support for the Houthis, ignoring war crimes by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which could implicate US officials who continued to sell weapons to the two allies. (The Saudi-led coalition insists it has not committed war crimes in Yemen, but its internal investigations were deemed flawed by human rights groups. In September, a UN panel of experts found that all parties to the conflict including the Houthis were implicated in possible war crimes).

Trump’s policy also ignored the fact that Iran stepped up its support for the Houthis after Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates intervened in Yemen’s civil war.

Despite international criticism and mounting evidence of war crimes, Trump continued to support Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is a leading proponent of the Yemen war. In 2019, Trump used his veto power four times to prevent Congress from ending arms sales to Saudi Arabia and its allies.

The terrorism designation is another misguided policy by the Trump administration that would add to the misery of millions of Yemenis. Beyond the moral reasons for Washington to help end the suffering of the Yemenis, the United States should pressure the Houthis and their opponents to reach a peace agreement that will ultimately reduce tensions between regional rivals Iran. and Saudi Arabia. The designation of the Houthis as a terrorist organization is likely to make the group more intransigent and bring it closer to Iran.

Even without the terrorism designation, food, medicine and other aid to Yemen has been held back not only by the war, but also by crippled infrastructure and attempts by the Houthis to impose a tax on international aid. Due to the limitations imposed by the Houthis on humanitarian work, Washington has already cut almost half of its assistance to the Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen this year. In 2019, US aid amounted to more than $ 700 million.

The UN also reduced its food rations to millions of Yemenis due to reduced aid from the United States and other donors. If the terrorism designation is finalized, Washington would immediately stop its remaining aid to the Houthi-controlled parts of Yemen.

US citizens or businesses can be prosecuted for providing “material support or resources” to a group designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization. Foreign individuals and organizations dealing with a designated group may also face US economic sanctions and possible prosecution.

The State Department could issue waivers that allow government agencies to continue operating in Yemen, while the Treasury Department could issue licenses that allow Americans and others to deliver aid to Houthi-controlled areas, without contravening US sanctions. . But these waivers could take months to prepare, creating delays in the delivery of food and other aid needed to prevent famine in many parts of Yemen.

A terrorist designation would also have a ripple effect beyond hampering the work of the UN and humanitarian groups: It would deter insurance, commercial transportation and trade companies from operating in Yemen because they would fear violating US law.

As a result, it would be much more difficult and expensive to ship crucial supplies to Yemen, which is almost entirely dependent on imported food. The threat of US sanctions or prosecution could also devastate shipments of medical aid and other supplies intended to prop up a healthcare system that has been devastated by years of war and, more recently, by the coronavirus pandemic.

The new secretary of state in the Biden administration could revoke the Houthi terrorism designation, but the process is cumbersome and could take months. It is also unlikely to be a top priority for the new administration, which may be concerned about being portrayed as “soft” on terrorism.

The full extent of the suffering in Yemen has gone in part unnoticed due to an unreliable death toll. In early 2017, the UN largely stopped updating its estimate of civilian deaths when the figure reached 10,000. In October 2019, the Armed Conflict Location and Events Data Project, an independent monitoring group, released a report detailing more than 100,000 deaths since the war began in 2015. On December 1, a UN agency he provided a much higher estimate, saying 233,000 had been killed. That projection includes 131,000 deaths from “indirect causes” such as food shortages, damage to Yemen’s infrastructure and health crises such as a years-long cholera epidemic.

If the Trump administration goes ahead with its plan to designate the Houthi militia as a terrorist organization, Yemen will face a more severe food and drug shortage. That will lead to more hunger, disease and misery, and more deaths from indirect but ultimately preventable causes.

This story was first published on CNN.com. Trump is considering a measure that would prolong Yemen’s misery