Trump Covid: How will this affect the US elections?



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Trump mocked Biden for always wearing a mask

The US presidential elections have turned their heads.

That phrase could have been written about any number of moments in a tumultuous year in American politics, but nothing like this has happened this year, this decade, this century.

Just 32 days before the presidential election, Donald Trump tested positive for Covid-19. Given his age, 74, he is in a high risk category for complications from the disease. At the very least, he will have to be quarantined while receiving treatment, which means that the US presidential race, at least its side, has been fundamentally altered.

Is the electoral campaign suspended?

The initial implications are obvious. The president’s rigorous campaign schedule, which included visits to Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Georgia, Florida and North Carolina in the past week, is on indefinite hold.

Trump will certainly have surrogates along the way, but given that he has relied heavily on his family and senior administration and campaign officials for such tasks in the past, many of them may have to self-quarantine due to their own exposure. to the virus, that Operation will also be interrupted.

Even the upcoming presidential debate, a town hall format with questions from the audience scheduled for October 15 in Miami, Florida, is in doubt. Perhaps the event could be held by videoconference, but that will largely depend on the health of the president at the time.

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At this point, there is no serious talk of altering the election calendar, which would require an act of Congress passed by both the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives and the Republican-controlled Senate.

In some states, in fact, early voting has already begun.

How will this affect the polls?

Then there are the political implications.

Despite the aforementioned turmoil this year: the pandemic and the resulting economic disruption, nationwide demonstrations against institutional racism and police brutality after George Floyd’s death, and sometimes violent riots in several major cities across USA, The myriad smaller crises and controversies that seem like a daily occurrence during the Trump years – This presidential race has been remarkably stable.

Democrat Joe Biden has held a statistically significant lead over the president for months in national polls, with a smaller but still notable lead in key states. Time was running out for the president to change this dynamic, even before this week’s dramatic news.

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The public has consistently given the president low marks for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, so anything that puts the spotlight on the disease is potentially damaging to his re-election prospects. To complicate matters for the president, many Americans will recall what many would describe as the president’s sometimes arrogant attitude toward Covid-19.

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In Tuesday’s presidential debate, Trump disparaged Biden for wearing masks frequently and not having campaign rallies the same size as his own.

“I don’t wear a mask like him,” Trump said. “Every time you see him, he has a mask.”

While the president has at times stressed the importance of social distancing and taking the virus seriously, he has also dealt with questionable science; said the virus would disappear “as if by magic”; and he attacked state officials who have imposed more aggressive mitigation measures and taken longer than he would like to reopen businesses and schools.

Trump’s coronavirus infection will highlight all of these past comments, once again raising questions about whether the pandemic was taken seriously enough both at the national policy level and within the White House itself, where health and the president’s security must, for the nation. for love, be of the utmost importance.

What are the risks for Democrats?

During times of national turmoil, the American public tends to rally in support of the president. While Trump and his administration will face tough questions about the virus, he and his wife will also be the recipients of national sympathy and prayers for the dire health experience they face.

Democrats and critics of the president may be inclined to join in a chorus of “I told you so” and celebrate what they see as political karma, but they do so at the risk of appearing insensitive or indifferent to the crisis facing the nation.

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More than 200,000 Americans have died from Covid-19 at this time, and grieving families and friends may not appreciate any way to blame the victims.

Biden’s campaign will face a challenge on how to respond. For months, the Democratic candidate has kept a lower profile to limit his risk of exposure, and Republicans, including the president himself, have mocked him for “hiding” in the basement of his home in Delaware.

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However, he has recently stepped up his in-person campaign, including a train tour of Ohio and western Pennsylvania on Wednesday. The campaign also announced that it would resume door-to-door voter scrutiny, although it had criticized the Trump campaign for conducting in-person activities in the past.

It seems unlikely that Biden will suspend his activities while the president is out of the way and undergoing treatment, but his campaign may need to reevaluate whether his recent activities should be reduced again.

“Jill and I send our thoughts to President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump for a speedy recovery,” Biden tweeted. “We will continue to pray for the health and safety of the president and his family.”

The Democratic candidate is setting a measured tone for his party, but it may be difficult for some to follow suit.

Will this affect the Supreme Court nomination?

Trump’s positive test is already sending shockwaves from the White House to Washington.

As Congress prepared for recess to allow its members to campaign for reelection, the legislature had been busy on two fronts: trying to negotiate a Covid-19 follow-up stimulus package and beginning the process of confirming the nominee. Trump’s Amy Coney Barrett to replace the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the United States Supreme Court.

Officials in the Trump administration, who have been very close to the president, have been heavily involved in both companies.

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin was on Capitol Hill Thursday negotiating with Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi in a last-ditch effort to find an agreement on relief legislation. And Barrett, along with White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows and Vice President Mike Pence, spent a long day Wednesday visiting Republican members of the Senate who will eventually vote whether to place her in court.

Mnuchin, Meadows and Pence have all announced negative tests, but none are completely clear yet.

The timeline for Barrett’s pre-election confirmation was always going to be tight, requiring a near flawless execution in the face of Democratic efforts to disrupt and delay the process.

Now it seems almost certain that the vote will take place after the November vote, when there is a possibility that the American people would have defeated Trump and the Republican Party at the polls.

What about other consequences?

The other political knock-on effects that could emerge from this news could largely depend on how far the virus has spread in the upper echelons of the US government and how the president responds to its treatment.

Political uncertainty could further disrupt any economic recovery that is taking place, as public confidence plummets and companies prepare again for a drop in revenue.

Concerns about contracting the virus, compounded by the president’s diagnosis, could encourage more Americans to switch to voting by mail rather than voting in person, causing delays in reporting on election results. If the election is closed, the possibility of a prolonged legal fight over who won could increase.

In a year of political storms, it is possible that the biggest storms are yet to come.

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