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The NHS is feared to face a third coronavirus wave with up to 20 times more patients than the second peak.
A third spike is believed to bring in a much higher number of hospitalized patients than seen during the September-October wave that triggered a second national lockdown in England.
In November, two advisers to the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) warned that the relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions at Christmas could lead to a third wave of the pandemic.
NHS hospitals would be overrun due to increased transmission and there would be more unnecessary deaths, warned Professor Andrew Hayward, an epidemiologist at University College London.
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Professor Graham Medley, an expert in infectious disease modeling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the relaxation could lead to new lockdown measures in the new year.
NHS health chiefs are said to be concerned that English hospitals will be overwhelmed with Covid patients in January and February.
They reportedly fear that if hospitals have more than 5,000 coronavirus patients by the end of the year, they may not be able to cope with a third wave.
The current rate of case decline would not bring the number of Covid hospitals below this threshold.
If the health service is overwhelmed, certain medical operations and procedures could be canceled.
At the peak of the second wave last month, 13,767 hospital beds were occupied by people infected with the virus, and the number fell to 12,241 by December 6, reports the Health Service Journal.
Meanwhile, most people over 80 in Britain will have to wait until next year to receive the coronavirus vaccine, says a senior health official.
Chris Hopson, executive director of NHS Providers, said the “vast majority” of the people at the top of the priority list won’t take a hit until January, February or March.
Professor Stephen Powis, the NHS’s national medical director, said the vaccine distribution would be a “marathon, not a sprint.”
The vaccines will be administered in dozens of hospitals starting Tuesday, dubbed “V-Day” by Health Secretary Matt Hancock, with people 80 and older, nursing home workers and NHS workers most at risk from the front of the row.
Croydon University Hospital in South London was one of the first hospitals to receive the vaccine over the weekend, with similar scenes playing out across the country before launch.
Hopson said people need to “hang up the fire” and make sure they haven’t been forgotten if they haven’t received a letter or phone call about the jab.
He said: “I don’t think people should expect anything for the next few days because the reality is, as I said, that for the vast, vast majority of people this will be done in January, February and March.”
“And the one thing we don’t want people to feel anxious or worried about is ‘Where’s my letter?’ in December.”
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