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The Philippines has probably had the longest COVID-19 quarantine period in Asia. The government clearly took the threat of the virus from the beginning and quite seriously. Although we lacked the ability to test and treat in the early days of the quarantine, I think the lockdown made a difference in containing the spread of the virus. Perhaps, without him, our case numbers would have been far worse than recent reports tell us. We’ll never really know, but I’d like to think that the 60 days of ECQ counted.
Unfortunately, the long quarantine period may have pushed the economic safety nets beyond their limits. We must remember that it was the health crisis that led the government to deliberately put the economy in a state of crisis. Therefore, the cure for the economic crisis depends on the cure for the pandemic. The scale and scope of welfare programs, business closings, and job disruptions are beyond what we have experienced, much less planned. In fact, this is unprecedented, and conventional economic wisdom is at odds with the calls from our health experts.
Other countries have managed to control the virus. Thailand has not reported any new COVID-19 cases in more than a month. Vietnam had the earliest success, while Singapore had a number of cases in the construction sector, but they have since halted the rise. The spread in Malaysia is now contained. The Philippines and Indonesia remain the hotspots in the region. However, the good news is that testing and treatment capacity has increased significantly.
The argument of saving lives (the health experts) versus the livelihood (the economic experts) eventually loses its meaning; in the end, it’s about saving lives. Without a functioning economy, businesses remain closed, commerce and commerce are paralyzed, unemployment rises, incomes are disrupted, people struggle to meet their daily needs, calls for government help rise, and public coffers are they empty without new tax revenue to replenish depleted funds. There is no good ending to this vicious cycle.
Understandably, government economic managers are pushing harder and harder to revive the economy. The business sector, for obvious reasons, supports them. The longer recovery efforts are put off, the longer it will take to return to any degree of normalcy, not to mention how much more costly it will be. I think the government is taking a balanced approach in trying to reopen the economy in a measured way while maintaining minimum health standards. The most critical success factor for this is citizen cooperation and vigilance. Wearing a mask and face shield, for example, reduces the chance of spreading and contracting the virus by up to 99%. If this is followed diligently, the speed of opening the economy may accelerate.
Another critical success factor will be the ability and effectiveness of local government units to address any increase in cases in specific groups. It seems that the mayors are working to make this happen. The business sector is also supporting national and local governments by implementing its own testing and monitoring protocols. Together, this will improve detection and treatment. Ultimately, this will again lead to a more rapid but measured revival in economic activity.
Micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) are the most challenged in terms of covering the contingent healthcare costs of reopening their businesses. Perhaps the government can consider some tax relief to offset these costs.
Beyond supply-side considerations, equally important success factors are stimulating demand and restoring consumer confidence.
We need to be sure that we can go about our daily lives safely with a reduced or controlled risk of exposure to COVID. We do not have maps to help us navigate through this unprecedented economic and health crisis. However, we can all do our part and truly heal as a nation.
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