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BEIJING (AP) – Xi Jinping’s pledge to phase out emissions by 2060 completes a diplomatic pirouette that takes China to the heart of the global green agenda, misses the United States and embraces Europe’s climate advocates. in one agile step.
Last month, the Chinese leader chose the UN as the scene of his country’s unexpected promise to reach maximum carbon use by 2030 and be carbon neutral three decades later.
The announcement gives China, the world’s largest polluter and second-largest economy, a chance to show environmental leadership as the United States withdraws from the issue under climate change skeptic Donald Trump.
While light on the details, the plan is a game changer if China follows through on Xi’s word, and the promise was welcomed by the European Union, which is already tightening its own emissions targets.
“It comes at a very good time,” says Wendel Trio of Climate Action Network Europe, with the European Commission launching its own proposal to deepen its emissions cuts to 55 percent by 2030.
China has become a diplomatic pariah after disputes with India over borders, the EU over rights abuses, Australia over security and the United States over everything from trade and technology to the origins of the coronavirus.
The 2060 promise reflects China’s desire to portray itself as a “responsible international player” after a storm of negative attention, Trio added.
While many remain unconvinced that China can deliver on its carbon ambitions, especially as it spends a lot of coal at home and sponsors dirty energy projects abroad, the promise gives China the helm of a major global problem. for the first time.
“Xi’s promise is part of his broader agenda to promote China as a global standard-setter,” says Maria Repnikova, a political scientist at Georgia State University.
China also remains tied to the Paris climate accords, the most profound effort yet to halt Earth’s dire warming, despite Trump pulling the United States out of the accord.
“China no longer just follows international rules and norms, it creates them. That is a significant change and a stark contrast to the isolationist rhetoric of the United States,” Repnikova said.
NEW GREEN ORDER?
Xi also has difficult internal calculations at play.
China’s 30-year economic rise from developing nation to superpower has been fueled by coal, bringing with it some of the most polluted skies in the world, and the country is far from breaking its addiction to carbon.
Next year, China is hosting the long-delayed UN summit on biodiversity, and Xi is likely to seek positive headlines about his environmental position.
Beijing’s five-year economic plan, which will also come into effect next year, will be scrutinized for serious commitments to leave the country without coal.
Currently, only 15 percent of the country’s energy mix comes from renewable energy. The Beijing 2060 commitment means it will have to scale up quickly.
But if the global direction of travel shifts away from coal to cheap renewables and green technology, China could put itself at the forefront of a new economic order.
That could spur action by provincial governments nervous about the economic blows of the coronavirus pandemic, says Lina Li, a climate and foreign policy specialist at Berlin-based consultancy Adelphi.
STRATEGIC PROFIT FOR BEIJING
Shutting down coal plants, meeting strict emissions targets, and pleasing the public by reducing pollution could also deliver a strategic victory for the Chinese Communist Party.
The move will allow Beijing to “tighten its controls over local governments and over Chinese society,” says Fuzuo Wu, a professor of international relations at the University of Salford.
But it remains to be seen whether China’s new climate policy will replace international distress with human rights issues.
On Wednesday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel accused China of “poor and cruel treatment” of its minorities and raised fears over the continued crackdown on dissent in Hong Kong.
European leaders plan to hold a special summit next month to discuss the continent’s complicated relations with China.
The climate issue could also change suddenly because of the outcome of next month’s US elections.
China and the US are fighting for supremacy in trade, technology and defense, and experts say the green agenda will become a new battleground, or a possible point of rapprochement.
Another Trump victory would increase America’s isolation from the environment. But a victory for Joe Biden, champion of a Green New Deal for the United States, “will change the scene,” adds Trio.
© Agence France-Presse
