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The Nuggets have tried to tell us that they are true contenders in each of the last two seasons, even if the public was not willing to listen.
Jamal Murray seemed offended that Denver was no real threat to the Finals, and Mike Malone expected nothing more than the production and effort of a superstar from Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets were treated as a fun side story, a pleasant surprise after a few years off. Those expectations have now been shattered and the Finals are within reach. So does Jokic and company have what it takes to dethrone LeBron and the Lakers? Let’s make the case.
Denver’s regular season metrics paint the picture of a true contender, belying any narrative of the Cinderella story. The Nuggets ranked No. 5 in offense and No. 11 in defense in the regular season, and held the third-best record in the West for much of 2019-20. Denver has more than 10 points per 100 possessions at the deciding moment, beating Jokic’s 51% of shots in tough situations. The Serbian giant is one of the NBA’s best late game options, a true rarity in modern NBA. Let the Nuggets stay up late at your own risk.
It’s not the most elaborate plan for the Nuggets to topple the Lakers, at least on the offensive side. Denver will rely on a heavy pick-and-roll diet from Murray-Jokic, and Jokic will get plenty of possessions to start the offense either on the block or near the foul line. The formula is born partially out of necessity. Denver’s secondary scorers aren’t exactly playmakers. Michael Porter Jr., Gary Harris, and Torrey Craig are more comfortable as point shooters, and while Jerami Grant is versatile for his size, he’s more of a cutter and shooter than a ball handler. Perhaps Paul Millsap will help keep Denver’s engine running after a mini-revival against the Clippers. But for the most part, it will be a two-person show.
That’s not necessarily a bad thing for Malone’s team. Jokic averaged 1.06 points per post in 2019-20 (second among all players with at least 100 attempts) and only six players scored more points as a big man in pick-and-roll situations. The Denver center presents an almost insoluble problem for defenses, especially as he ramps up his three-point attempts in the playoffs. Take a heavy hit on Jokic and it will rain triples. Reduce the size and you will invite a dangerous post to upload. Jokic is perhaps the greatest passing player of all time, and his scoring touch is most impressive on the season. He’ll have to feast on an admittedly robust Lakers defense to advance to the Finals.
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We should certainly take a moment to acknowledge Jokic’s co-star, who hasn’t been so quietly in prolonged hell during the postseason. Murray’s playoffs have been a pleasure to watch, and not just because of her elite shooting ability and flair for the dramatic. Murray has been the voice of the Nuggets all season, almost defiant in his belief that Denver was the best team in the West. That confidence carries over to his game and, in turn, to his team. The collective belief throughout the organization can be traced directly to its franchise base.
The Western Conference finals could provide an advantageous matchup for Murray. The Los Angeles guard rotation isn’t exactly intimidating, with Avery Bradley deciding to potentially opt out in the coming weeks. Rajon Rondo is as smart as any point guard in the league, and Alex Caruso showed impressive restraint defending James Harden. Danny Green is probably the best perimeter defender in Los Angeles. However, all three players are more solid than spectacular. Murray should have a lot more opportunities for isolation than Harden, thanks in large part to Jokic breaking traps instead of Russell Westbrook. Few defenders can truly stop Murray one on one. It’s unclear if any of them reside on the Lakers’ roster.
It would be surprising not to see an effective offense from Denver, even considering the collective length and intelligence of his opponent. Jokic is truly a great generational, and Murray’s arrival as the lead is no joke. The last two rounds are anything but a mirage. But the Nuggets could still fall short even if their main options prosper. The Lakers offense found its groove in the second round, and Denver’s staff may have a hard time keeping up. An uphill battle awaits you against LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
Malone’s rotation on the show is likely dictated by Frank Vogel’s decision making. The Nuggets can’t really shrink in size given that their best player is, well, a mountain of men, but there will be adjustments depending on how Vogel uses his roster. Denver is likely to prefer Vogel to lean heavily on his bigs, avoiding the small ball units deployed to beat the Rockets. Starting with Anthony Davis at four and JaVale McGee at five allows Jokic to cover a real big man, and leaves Paul Millsap and Jerami Grant in the game. No one can match the size of the Lakers, but Denver can come close. Malone will invite a battle of the greats, even if he hinders Jokic to some extent on the offensive side.
Things get more difficult when the Lakers put Davis in his rightful position. Playing Anthony Davis in center inserts Caruso, Rondo Kyle Kuzma or Markieff Morris into the game, which will likely force Malone to play against Porter Jr. or Torrey Craig. Maybe Malone will stay stubborn and play Millsap, Jokic and Grant against Los Angeles’ pseudo-small ball look, although that could lead to trouble (and sad memories for Milsap). There are no perfect options at stake. Stay big and James will overtake defenders on the way to the basket. Play Porter Jr. or slimmer Craig, and the King will step into the booth and control the chessboard. Solutions against James are difficult to find, especially with unstable personnel. Malone will likely run into the same problem as many of his playoff predecessors when James racks up points.
James and Davis must remain Denver’s primary focus, even at the cost of allowing wide jump shots. The Rockets boasted of their ability to form a wall after Game 1, but after Danuel House, and the spirit of Houston, left the bubble, Mike D’Antoni’s team became increasingly reluctant to protect the rim. . James feasted in isolation with little help, and Davis rolled the hoop with no real deterrence. Denver has to learn from Houston’s mistakes. If Kuzma, Rondo, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope swing the series, so be it. Limiting James and Davis’s gazes to the rim remains the number one priority.
We shouldn’t go around Denver’s underdog status in this series. The Lakers are the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, armed with the best player of their generation and a second All-NBA talent. James is the tide that lifts all ships, and his ability to extract quality performances from normal players remains unmatched. Anything other than a championship will come as a surprise to James and company with less than a month in the bubble.
However, if there is one team that shouldn’t be ruled out, it’s the Nuggets. Its growth over the past three years has generated an uncommon toughness, built on small victories and the constant demand for excellence. Malone has turned a stocky center who makes the first pass into a true superstar. Murray is now among the best shooting guards in the league after a shaky 2019 playoffs. The Nuggets may not be the favorites coming in on Friday night, but there is little question of their confidence ahead of another potential playoff upset .
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