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A sidewalk full of vendors in Quezon City on September 1, 2020. EPA-EFE via The Straits Times / Asia News Network
MANILA, Philippines – Six months after applying some of the longest and strictest quarantine restrictions in the world, the Philippines is seeing signs that the Covid-19 outbreak in its capital, Manila, is finally being contained.
“We have actually flattened (the curve),” Professor Guido David, head of the Octa Research Team at the University of the Philippines, told CNN Philippines on Sunday (September 6).
He was referring to signs that the spread of the coronavirus was slowing down.
And while the same number of people may be getting sick, infections appear to be occurring over a longer period of time, allowing hospitals the time and resources to treat incoming Covid-19 patients without feeling overwhelmed. .
Professor David said that the number of reproduction of the virus in the capital, which recorded the highest number of infections, had dropped to less than one and was declining, calling it “a good sign.”
The reproduction number is an indicator of how contagious a disease is or how easily it is transmitted from person to person in a community. Governments use it as a proxy to determine whether their respective Covid-19 outbreaks are growing, declining, or staying stable.
Generally, a figure less than one is a good sign.
Professor David said that the so-called positivity rate was also decreasing.
“We were averaging more than 4,000 cases (per day) from mid to late August (for the entire county). Now, we have an average of 3,000, “he said.
Health officials recorded more than 130,000 infections in August, representing more than a third of the country’s recorded tally of 237,365.
The Philippines still has the highest number of recorded Covid-19 cases in Southeast Asia. About 48,000 are still active cases.
So far in September, some 17,000 new cases of Covid-19 have been registered.
The Undersecretary of Health, María Rosario Vergeire, said on Monday that although the current indicators showed improvements, “we always say that nothing is safe at this time.”
“We can say that our strategies are working, although it is not immediate. We can see that we are decongesting our hospitals, ”he said.
Dr. Vergeire revealed that only 66 percent of hospital beds in Manila were occupied, up from a peak of around 80 percent last month.
Professor David said the two-week shutdown early last month was a “major factor” in the decline in numbers.
President Rodrigo Duterte reimposed quarantine measures in the capital and four nearby provinces, home to some 27 million or a quarter of the Philippine population, from August 4-18 after more than 160 medical groups warned that the health system it was on the brink of collapse.
The Philippines went through one of the longest home-shelter lockdowns in the world from mid-March to May. But since they emerged from that widespread lockdown on June 1, confirmed infections in the country have surpassed 200,000.
Now the curbs have been eased once again.
Most businesses have been allowed to resume, including canteen services. Religious services are back as well, provided houses of worship limit total attendance to 30% of a building’s capacity.
The hours of operation of the shopping centers have been extended.
Gyms, hair salons, and internet cafes were allowed to partially reopen, at 30 percent of capacity.
Professor David said it was too early to rule out another increase.
“It does not mean that our problem is solved. It does not mean that the pandemic is over, ”he said.
“The virus is still here. We still receive around 3,000 cases a day and we have to keep up our momentum. So we have to keep doing the right things and not waver. “
He said that Covid-19 cases in the Philippines could still exceed 300,000 by the end of the month.
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