SpaceX returns to the launch pad, and there are a few things to keep in mind

SpaceX has targeted Wednesday afternoon for the upcoming launch of its Falcon 9 rocket from a platform at the Kennedy Space Center. This mission will launch the sixth batch of Starlink operational satellites, bringing the company closer to offering initial broadband Internet access to North America.

However, the launch of Starlink-6, scheduled for 3:37 p.m. ET (19:37 UTC), is notable for reasons beyond the simple extension of the company’s Starlink network.

Can they land it?

SpaceX has gotten pretty good landing the early stages on Earth, as they have now done 50 times. However, the company failed to successfully land the first stage in an autonomous drone the last two times it attempted to do so.

On February 17, after the launch of Starlink-4, the first stage received incorrect data about the wind conditions near the landing site and lost the unmanned ship. Then on March 18, one of the rocket’s nine Merlin 1D engines failed during launch, and although the Starlink-5 satellites went into orbit, this prevented a fully controlled return of the first stage.

So what had become seemingly routine (drone landings) now takes on a bit more intrigue with the launch of Starlink-6.

It is notable that SpaceX has driven this week’s launch from Thursday to Wednesday, quoting a “more favorable weather forecast for launch and landing”. Launch conditions on Wednesday are more favorable (90 percent chance of “going out in the open”) than on Thursday, but the seas should also be considerably less rough in the offshore landing zone. This increases the chances of success.

Engine shutdown problem

This particular first leg has flown on three previous missions, beginning in March 2019 with the first commercial crew demo mission. SpaceX will be eager to retrieve this core to see if it can fly the core for the fifth time to collect more data on how to overcome the limits of booster reuse.

The Starlink-5 mission last month, which suffered an engine shutdown failure, marked the first time SpaceX had attempted to fly a first stage of the Falcon 9 five times. Although the company has not publicly commented on the cause of the failure, a source suggested it was caused by a processing issue, not a fundamental hardware issue.

Closing the investigation into this engine failure is important to SpaceX and NASA, as the first human launch of the Falcon 9 will arrive as soon as May 27. Flying Starlink-6 successfully would probably help with that.

This is also probably the penultimate launch before the Crew Dragon mission. SpaceX has another Falcon 9 rocket in preparation for the Starlink-7 mission, which is likely to launch sometime in May from a nearby launch pad at Space Launch Complex-30. It goes without saying that these two launches must be flawless in order for the Crew Dragon flight carrying astronauts Doug Hurley and Bob Behnken to stay on time.