Second wave of coronavirus in Europe: what went wrong

Daily case numbers in the European Union and the United Kingdom this week reached record levels of more than 45,000 at a 14-day notification rate, according to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), and are being imposing new restrictions on places that were good to reopen. Leaders have expressed fears about the pressure hospitals could face in the coming months and the looming prospect of new national closures.

Europe’s death rate has been stable for 72 days, according to the ECDC, although Bulgaria, Croatia, Malta, Romania and Spain are experiencing increases in the death rate.

There are trends that can explain the decline. The increase comes just after the summer vacation season, when workers return to city centers and children go back to school. The World Health Organization has suggested the increase could be partly due to relaxation of measures and people letting their guard down, and evidence indicates that young people are driving the second increase in Europe.

Despite the growing number of recent cases and deaths in Europe, the continent still compares favorably with the United States. Europe has reported 4.4 million cases and 217,278 deaths in a population of 750 million, while the United States has reported 6.7 million cases and 198,000 deaths in a population of 330 million.

The second wave

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told reporters on Friday that the UK “is now seeing a second wave coming” and that it was “inevitable” as the number of daily cases surpassed 4,000 for the first time since. may.

“Obviously, we are looking very carefully at the spread of the pandemic as it evolves in recent days,” Johnson said. “There is no doubt, as I have said for weeks, that we could (and) now we are seeing a second wave coming. We are seeing it in France, in Spain, throughout Europe. It has been absolutely inevitable that we will see in this country.

“I don’t want to enter a second national blockade. The only way we can do it is if people follow the lead.”

The UK has the highest death toll in Europe at over 40,000 and new restrictions were placed on social gatherings across England this week.

New restrictions were also announced on Friday in Madrid, which accounts for about a third of all new cases in Spain, according to the Spanish Ministry of Health. The country reported a record 12,183 daily cases on September 11 and has the highest number of cases in Europe with more than 600,000, with more than 30,000 deaths.

The Czech Republic reported a record 3,130 daily infections on Friday, as masks became mandatory in schools again, and the Netherlands reported a record 1,977 cases. Prime Minister Mark Rutte told a news conference that the country’s number of daily infections was doubling in just over a week. “With an R of 1.4, that number will grow in three weeks to more than 10,000 a day,” he said.

“You don’t have to be a mathematician or a virologist to understand that these kinds of numbers will inevitably work in hospitals,” he warned.

Restaurants, cafes and bars in six Dutch regions will face new restrictions starting Sunday.

Italy posted its highest count since May on Friday with 1,907 daily cases; Poland recorded a record 1,002 daily cases on Saturday.

Where it went wrong

WHO Director for Europe Hans Kluge this week warned of “alarming transmission rates” and a “very serious situation” in the region, adding that weekly cases have exceeded those reported during the March peak.

In late August, Kluge said that the gradual increase in cases in Europe could be partly explained by “the relaxation of social and public health measures, where the authorities have eased some of the restrictions and people have let down their guard” .

He said he was “very concerned that more and more young people are among the reported cases,” advising against large gatherings and parties.

In several countries, cases are increasing particularly fast in densely populated cities, where people are returning to offices, schools and public places after measures eased after the peak of spring.

Like Spain, Austria has seen its biggest rebound in capital. Chancellor Sebastian Kurz told Austria’s national news agency APA on Sunday that the situation was “particularly dramatic” in Vienna, which has more than half of all new infections recorded.

” We are at the beginning of the second wave. We face difficult months in the fall and winter. The number of infections is increasing day by day, “he said in a tweet, calling on Austrians to reduce social contacts as the obligation to wear face masks expanded to more public places.

Turkey recorded 63 deaths in 24 hours this week, its highest death toll in one day. Turkish Health Minister Fahrettin Koca said in his weekly press conference on the coronavirus on September 2 that the country was “in the second peak of the first wave.”

“We are at this threshold today due to the movement around the holiday period and weddings that are an integral part of our traditions.”

Italian authorities said in late August that about 50% of new infections had been contracted during summer holidays, across the country and abroad, mainly among young adults who have not been cautious about social distancing and mask wearing guidelines.

But Europe can take comfort in experience. Professor Mark Woolhouse, an epidemiologist at the University of Edinburgh, told CNN earlier this month that the initial shutdown “is never, ever going to solve the problem for us in Europe or anywhere else; it just postpones it.”