Researchers see a downward trend in PH virus cases

A group of independent researchers said on Thursday that coronavirus cases in the Philippines were on a “downward trend,” seven months after the country was blocked from stopping the spread of the COVID-19 pathogen.

But the group, OCTA Research, recommended stricter quarantine measures for at least 18 areas of the country, including Metro Manila.

In its October 6 report, OCTA Research, comprised of independent researchers from the University of the Philippines, the University of Santo Tomas, and Providence College in the United States, noted that there are now only 2,500 new coronavirus infections per day in the Philippines, what places the country back to its case levels from May to June.

‘High risk’ areas

He said the downward trend was most evident in Metro Manila, the epicenter of the country’s coronavirus outbreak, where cases had slipped to less than 1,000 a day.

However, the team considers the metropolis and 17 other areas to be “high risk”, still registering more than 100 new cases a day during the last two weeks.

The other areas are Batangas, Benguet, Cavite, Davao del Sur, Iloilo, Laguna, Misamis Oriental, Negros Occidental, Nueva Ecija, Quezon, Pangasinan, Rizal, South Cotabato, Surigao del Sur, Western Samar and Zamboanga del Sur.

Meanwhile, the two benchmarks used to measure the flattening of the curve, the reproductive number and the positivity rate, have also dropped to 0.82 and 8 percent, respectively. International health standards set the ideal rates at less than 1 and 5 percent, respectively.

But the positive trends “are not irreversible,” the group said, adding that everyone must make significant efforts to maintain the downward trend.

Health system capacity

“We urge national and local governments to monitor and strictly enforce minimum health standards … as strict and universal compliance with these can reduce [coronavirus] broadcasts in the country, ”said the team.

To cope with “future waves” in light of the resumption of various socio-economic strategies, the government must increase the capacity of the health care system by creating more isolation centers and launching an aggressive system for tracking contacts, the group said.

It also recommended more aggressive local closures for the 18 high-risk areas, as well as in the provinces of Cagayán and Isabela, where the problem is limited hospital capacity.

The group reiterated its previous recommendations to urgently expand testing, tracing and treatment strategies to control the spread of the coronavirus.

In response to the group’s recommendations, Carlito Galvez Jr., head of the National Task Force against COVID-19, said the government would no longer impose blanket blockades to suppress virus outbreaks. He said the current response was to impose local closures, with health teams deployed to localities with high transmission rates to increase their ability to detect, isolate and treat COVID-19 cases.

Gálvez said the government was supporting local governments without its own quarantines by providing isolation services to infected residents.

He said 683 treatment centers were being built and that they would add 24,000 beds to local capacity to handle the coronavirus. However, he did not say where the treatment centers were being built.

On Thursday, the Department of Health (DOH) reported 2,363 additional coronavirus infections, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 331,869.

Of the new cases identified by 122 of the 142 accredited laboratories, 858 were from Metro Manila. Cavite accounted for 309; Batangas, 139; Rizal, 112; and Bulacan, 97.

Most of the new cases, or 1,869, became ill between September 25 and October 8.

The DOH reported that 697 more patients had recovered, bringing the total number of COVID-19 survivors to 274,318. The death toll, however, rose to 6,069 with the death of 144 more patients.

That left the country with 51,482 active cases, of which 85.7 percent were mild, 9.8 percent asymptomatic, 1.4 percent severe, and 3.1 percent critical.

Of the recently reported deaths, 47 died this month, 26 in September, 46 in August and 25 in July.

Ninety-six of the deaths were from Metro Manila, 14 from Calabarzon, eight from central Visayas, seven from central Luzon, six from western Visayas and Caraga, two from Davao and one from Ilocos, eastern Visayas, northern Mindanao, Soccsksargen and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao. —WITH REPORTS FROM TINA G. SANTOS AND JEANNETTE I. ANDRADE

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