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Vaccines will not be a silver bullet to end the Covid-19 pandemic and leaders must avoid creating false hope, a key government adviser warned.
Sir Jeremy Farrar, Director of the Wellcome Trust, writes today Observer that early vaccines are likely to be only partially effective. Raising expectations and speeding up the production of new drugs can hurt the public’s confidence in any vaccination program that eventually arrives, he said.
Farrar, a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), also points to “vaccine nationalism,” saying supplies should be allocated fairly rather than hoarded by wealthier nations.
Vaccines in the UK should be targeted first to those who need them most, he says, calling for steps to be taken to prevent the virus from spreading to vulnerable young adults, who test positive for Covid-19 a an increasing rate.
“We are facing a chaotic winter for schools and businesses,” writes Farrar. “We have to do everything possible to avoid this. The first vaccine may not be a silver bullet that brings us back to normal in a matter of months, but by using doses wisely in the people who need them most, along with thoughtful and truthful public health messages that do not create false expectations, we will be in a strong position to avoid a repeat of early 2020. “
More than 170 research teams around the world are trying to find Covid-19 vaccines, and while nine have reached large-scale trials, there has never been an effective vaccine against a coronavirus before.
“I am optimistic that we will soon see the results of the first vaccines arriving through late-stage clinical trials,” Farrar writes. “However, we must temper this optimism, talk about the perfect vaccine ‘just around the corner’ or that it can be given to everyone immediately.
“The speed and scale of vaccine development has been remarkable, but it is important to avoid false hopes.”
Last month, Kate Bingham, chair of the UK Vaccine Task Force, announced that they had secured access to six of the most promising candidates. Farrar praised the task force’s efforts, but said the vaccines would not be perfect.
“The first generation of Covid-19 vaccines will likely only be partially effective,” he writes. “They may not be fully effective at all ages or appropriate in all health systems. It is very possible that they only provide immunity for a limited period, even 12 to 18 months. “
The urgency of finding a vaccine “should not mean compromising safety,” he says.
“Trust is our most important tool in public health and we must do everything possible to avoid doubting that. You cannot buy with short-term promises. There are already worrying signs of a decline in confidence in potential Covid-19 vaccines. “
The search for a vaccine is increasingly described as a race, and world leaders use the research to embroider their own nationalist ambitions. Vladimir Putin announced a Russian vaccine, Sputnik V, to great fanfare last month. Donald Trump has put pressure on US officials by stating that an American vaccine would likely be available in October.
The United States has chosen not to participate in the World Health Organization’s Covax facility, through which 75 richer countries, including Britain, have pledged to help fund vaccines for 90 poorer countries.
Britain has set aside £ 250 million to buy 340 million doses of vaccines, more per capita than any other country.
“Only 20% to 30% of the UK population will need initial access to a vaccine,” Farrar writes. “The UK position can be much stronger through firm commitments to pool excess doses through Covax.”
