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Manila, Philippines – An increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in its “early stages” has been detected in Metro Manila and is a “serious cause for concern” that could still be mitigated, according to an academic research group that has been monitoring the pandemic. .
In its latest report released Tuesday, Octa’s Research Team said the “period of the downward trend in cases seen in the National Capital Region (NCR) in recent months is over.”
“The trend has been reversed with a significant positive growth in new cases observed in the region,” said the multidisciplinary group.
“It is in this light that we believe, based on our analysis of the data and past trends in the NCR, that an increase in its early stages has already begun in the region. This is a serious cause for concern, ”he said.
The group reported that the R0 (R-zero) reproduction number of the new coronavirus infection in Metro Manila increased to 1.15 in the December 14-20 period from 1.06 in the previous week.
Still pandemic epicenter
“The NCR remains the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country with the highest number of cases,” he said.
On Tuesday, the Department of Health (DOH) reported 1,314 additional cases, raising the national count to 462,815.
Quezon City had the highest number of new infections, 93, followed by Rizal (89), Benguet (78), Bulacan (61) and Davao City (60).
The DOH said 247 more patients had recovered from COVID-19, bringing the total number of survivors to 429,419.
The death toll surpassed the 9,000 to 9,021 mark after 66 patients succumbed to severe respiratory illness.
‘Still manageable’
Recoveries and deaths left the country with 24,375 active cases, of which 82.6 percent were mild, 8.5 percent asymptomatic, 0.31 percent moderate, 2.9 percent severe, and 5 , 7 percent critical.
Octa Research said the increase is still in the “nascent” stage and could still be mitigated or reversed.
“While the situation in the RNC is still manageable, we urge the government, civil society and the private sector to begin working together to implement appropriate and timely responses to quickly reverse this trend and prevent this resulting increase from becoming a true one. overwhelming the health system at NCR, ”he said.
The group said locations identified as areas of concern should step up their testing, tracking and isolation efforts.
Aside from NCR, the provinces of interest identified in the report include Rizal, Bulacan, Isabela, Leyte, Pangasinan, Negros Oriental, and South Cotabato.
Octa Research said that nine of the 17 local governments that make up Metro Manila showed an increase in new cases during the two-week monitoring period. These are Quezon City, Makati, San Juan, Marikina, Malabon, Taguig, Navotas, Valenzuela, and Caloocan.
‘Areas of concern’
Makati and Quezon City were considered among Metro Manila’s “areas of concern” in the government’s efforts to curb the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, it said.
“More aggressive and effective localized closures with stricter border controls are urgently needed to suppress more viral transmissions” for local governments identified as high risk, he added.
“Along with more effective inspection and other controls at our ports and airports, this will be crucial in supporting the government’s plans to expand domestic and international travel in the Philippines,” said Octa Research.
In addition to Metro Manila, the group pointed to the cities of Santiago and Ilagan in the Isabela province, the city of Baguio and La Trinidad in the province of Benguet, Cainta (Rizal), the city of Batangas (Batangas) and the cities of Ormoc and Tacloban (Leyte).
The report did not cite any cities of concern in Mindanao, although it did mention a higher rate of attacks in southern Cotabato.
Holiday activities
Octa Research urged national and local governments to ensure that minimum health standards are followed and to issue clearer guidelines to the public on holiday activities to help ensure less viral transmission.
He reminded the public to observe the general community quarantine guideline that limits gatherings to 10 people and discouraged office parties and other social events. Family reunions should be limited to immediate members, he added.
“If larger gatherings have to happen, they should be held outdoors (in open air / well ventilated locations) to mitigate broadcasts,” he said.
The group said that people should avoid closed and crowded places and refrain from joining or organizing Christmas gatherings.
“There is evidence from Europe and North America that greater social mixing between households is driving the second wave of COVID-19 in these parts of the world,” he said.
“While we must celebrate Christmas and we will, we must do so safely and responsibly, not only to ensure our own safety and well-being, but that of our families and our community,” he added. –WITH A REPORT FROM JOVIC YEE INQ
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