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OCTA’s research team recommended on Saturday a one-week extension of the enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) imposed on the NCR Plus bubble amid the continued rise in the number of COVID-19 cases.
“This one-week ECQ is certainly not enough. We are definitely not out of the woods yet, and we need an extra week and maybe more,” OCTA Research fellow Ranjit Rye said in a briefing.
“Our position has been clear before and it remains clear today that based on the data we have, we are not out of the woods yet. We need an additional week of ECQ at the very least and do a serious assessment after that,” he added.
Dr. Guido David, another OCTA Research fellow, said they project the virus’s breeding number to be 1.5 this Easter Sunday, which could drop to 1.2 down to 1 if the ECQ is extended for another week.
Otherwise, relaxing the restrictions after Easter Sunday will lead to a continued increase in the number of COVID-19 cases from up to 12,000 to 13,000 a day, according to David.
“It is extremely catastrophic for us to open prematurely with hospitals at critical levels at this time,” Rye said, adding that both lives and livelihoods will be at stake and the gains made during the NCR Plus bubble will be lost.
“OCTA’s belief has always been that if we are able to manage and mitigate broadcasts, that is the only time we can really jump-start the economy. If we can’t deal with the surge, we can’t open up the economy,” he added Rye.
From March 26 to April 2, the number of reproduction in the National Capital Region was 1.65, lower than the 1.96 of the previous weeks. David attributed the decrease to the ECQ.
David said the effects of COVID-19 variants were taken into consideration in his projections, as some parts of NCR had a 2.25 to 2.5 spawn rate, especially in Pasay City.
He said OCTA Research has observed that the South African variant is more infectious than the UK variant, and that the breeding number in Cebu reaches only 1.8 or less than 2 due to the UK variant. Meanwhile, NCR had a higher level of breeding numbers and the South African variant also spread in the region.
NCR, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna and Rizal, designated as NCR Plus, were placed under ECQ from midnight March 29 to Sunday April 4, to limit public movement and help prevent further transmission of the coronavirus.
The Department of Health previously recommended a one-week extension of the reimposed ECQ on NCR Plus.
“An extension for another week was recommended, but nothing is final and the IATF operates with a full governance approach. There will be an evaluation of progress before the end of the ECQ, ”DOH Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire told GMA News in a text message Tuesday.
President Rodrigo Duterte will announce the quarantine protocol for NCR Plus on Saturday starting April 5, said presidential spokesman Harry Roque.
Nationwide, the Philippines has tallied 771,497 COVID-19 cases as of Friday.
Of this number, 153,809 are active, the highest this year.
Recoveries totaled 604,368 while the death toll rose to 13,320. —KG, GMA News
