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Giannis Antetokounmpo led the Bucks to their best season in seven years and won Most Improved Player in 2017. He started the next season absolutely dominant.
But Milwaukee started 4-5.
That kind of pushback had become the norm for the Bucks. They had not made the playoffs in consecutive seasons in 14 years. It had been even longer since they won a postseason series. Milwaukee had been defined by unsustained moderate success.
However, the Bucks were determined to break the trend. Antetokounmpo was special and deserved an appropriate supporting cast.
Less than a year later, Milwaukee had a championship contender.
That sudden emergence is an incredible success story. It also raised expectations, making this year’s second-round loss to the Heat a bitter disappointment, creating long-term complications as the Bucks approach Antetokounmpo’s super max decision.
How did Milwaukee get here?
Adding proven collaborators around the Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton pillars who continued to improve. The Bucks traded for Eric Bledsoe, signed Mike Budenholzer, signed Brook Lopez, traded for George Hill and signed Wesley Matthews to make up the rest of the main playoff rotation.
The Proven Taxpayer Trap: They Cost.
Milwaukee gave up first-round picks by trading Bledsoe and Hill. The Bucks got Lopez cheap after a low year, but only because they offered him the one-year deal he wanted. López rebuilt his actions and collected. Hill also landed a lucrative contract by re-signing last summer. Bledsoe previously signed a large extension, while its value is high.
Matthews got a minimum contract, but only because he’s older with no untapped perks. In that sense, it is not an outlier.
Ages of Antetokounmpo’s supporting cast:
- Middleton 29
- Lopez 32
- Bledsoe 30
- Matthews 33
- Hill 34
Milwaukee’s seventh man Marvin Williams has retired!
Antetokounmpo’s supporting cast had an average age * of 30.5 years this season. Assuming Antetokounmpo wins the MVP, that would be the fourth oldest supporting cast for an MVP in NBA history:
* Using a player’s age on February 1, weighted by playing time in the playoffs (or, in the case of 1976 MVP Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, whose Lakers missed the playoffs, regular season)
This group was not good enough this season and is only getting old.
Does Antetokounmpo really want to commit the next six years of his career to this team?
Antetokounmpo sounds determined to win Milwaukee.
Next year, at least.
His contract will expire in 2021. He could sign a super-maximum five-year extension this offseason, but the economic recession caused by the coronavirus adds uncertainty. Antetokounmpo could wait until 2021 in free agency, when the same contract terms will be available to him with the Bucks (and other teams may offer deals).
That would also give him more time to evaluate this supporting cast.
It should include more players in Antetokounmpo’s age range. But Milwaukee made so many mistakes in the ideal window to build around.
The Bucks were a lousy year as Antetokounmpo’s rookie. That gave them the second pick, which they used on Jabari Parker. Then they slowly let Parker’s courage bottom out. Subsequent picks, Rashad Vaughn (No. 17 in 2015) and Thon Maker (No. 10 in 2016), were eliminated.
Milwaukee’s own draft pick will never reach that high again as long as they have Antetokounmpo.
Key operations also backfired. The Bucks found a team will to trade a coveted future Lakers first-round player (who became Mikal Bridges) for Brandon Knight and instead opted for Michael Carter-Williams in a three-way trade. Milwaukee dealt a first round (which became OG Anunoby) and a second round (which became Norman Powell) for Greivis Vasquez.
And then there are the contracts.
Between 2015 and 2017, Milwaukee offered some twisted deals:
At best, those contracts served as roadblocks. But Milwaukee also delivered a first round to get rid of Henson and Dellavedova (and acquire Hill) and another first round to get rid of Snell.
Every team has flaws. Few teams have done as well as the Bucks in recovering from theirs.
But those missed opportunities continue to grow in importance as the stakes increase.
Even a hit casts a shadow in this high pressure situation.
Milwaukee selected Malcolm Brogdon in the second round of 2016. He won the Rookie of the Year award and became a quality starter.
But when it came time to pay him last summer, the Bucks refused. They signed him and traded him to the Pacers for a future first-round pick.
The decision was understandable. Brogdon was expensive and had worrisome health problems. Milwaukee replaced him remarkably well.
Yet it’s impossible to watch Brogdon flourish in Indiana without wondering if the Bucks should have kept him. Not to be missed that letting Brogdon go helped Milwaukee avoid the luxury tax.
Especially since the Bucks never traded Indiana’s first-round pick for a player this season.
Maybe Brogdon or someone acquired to the national team wouldn’t have put Milwaukee on top against Miami. But a player would have helped. A future draft pick provided no value in that second-round series.
The Bucks will get the 24th pick this year. It’s a key arrow in the quiver as they try to upgrade Antetokounmpo’s older supporting cast. Milwaukee also has Donte DiVincenzo, a 23-year-old who took a big step forward this year and could keep getting better.
Really, it may not take much. The Bucks are already very good, and the heartbreak of deep playoff setbacks is a necessary requirement for a championship. Antetokounmpo himself can play better and is young enough to significantly refine his game.
It is a tribute to the Milwaukee management that the window is open around Antetokounmpo.
But it may not stay open long.
You will have to decide if you want that to be your problem or one to leave behind.
