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The Department of Health (DoH) has warned that at least 4,000 cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) may be recorded per day in Metro Manila if Filipinos do not meet minimum public health standards this holiday season.
The Undersecretary of Health, María Rosario Vergeire, said that based on Fassster’s initial projections, or the feasibility analysis of syndromic surveillance using the spatio-temporal epidemiological modeler for the early detection of diseases, and the Octa research group, Based at the academy, the daily increase “may overwhelm system capacity health to more than 80 percent utilization by the end of January if we do not act vigorously to stop transmission now.”
Experts have noticed an increase in the case rate over two weeks, from -16 percent to -4 percent.
Positive growth rates were recorded in Ilocos, Valle de Cagayán, Cordillera and the National Capital Region (RNC).
The number of new cases in relation to the total burden on its population is higher in the RNC, Cordillera Administrative Region, Calabarzon (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal and Quezon) and Davao.
The national reproduction number or R0 (pronounced “R-nothing”) is now above 1.0, the same in Metro Manila, with more than half of the cities in the capital region showing increases.
An R0 of 1 or higher means that there is a faster transmission rate in a given community in a period of time. To avoid this, the Department of Health has advised people to implement minimum public health standards, avoid mass gatherings, and isolate, trace contacts, and quarantine close contacts within 24 hours.
The use of face shields has also been effective as it helped reduce R0 and the number of cases in the country in September, according to Dr. Guido David of the Octa Research team.
Dr. Antonio Dans, Senior Coordinator of the Healthcare Professionals Alliance Against Covid-19, also reminded people to practice the Apat Dapat (Four is Enough) rule: go to areas with high air circulation, observe physical distancing, use personal protective equipment correctly and keep the interaction time to less than 30 minutes.
Dr. Gerardo Legaspi, medical director of the General Hospital of the Philippines, added that different hospitals, including his own, have learned a lot in the last nine months and were now prepared for a possible increase in the number of cases in the country, while The Undersecretary of the Interior and Local Government, Bernardo Florece Jr., said that they have mobilized the Barangay Health Emergency Response Teams, or Bherts, and barangay tanod (village watchers) to monitor their communities in compliance with the protocols of Health.
On Thursday, the country registered 1,470 new cases of Covid-19, bringing the total number of cases to 454,447, with 633 new recoveries and 17 new deaths reported.
‘Natural disasters made Covid worse’
The Philippines and Vietnam are the two countries in Southeast Asia where the pandemic complicated emergency responses to disasters, including severe floods, storms and landslides, according to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.
Mary Joy Gonzales, CARE’s resilience project manager in the Philippines, said her relief agency had worked to provide additional shelter to allow for social distancing after a person contracted Covid-19 at an evacuation center it was supporting.
Women have suffered a triple blow, she added, with the pandemic fueling violence in the home, as many lost their jobs and had to care for out-of-school children and elderly relatives as the country was hit by destructive storms.
WITH GLOBAL TIMES
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