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Mark J. Terrill / Associated Press
With player movement seemingly drawing as much interest as the games themselves, the NBA’s commercial surveillance never really stops. But with the decline in postseason entrants and most organizations already switching to offseason mode, the focus on the transactional side of the league is accelerating.
Case in point: The biggest topic of discussion in recent days has been Giannis Antetokounmpo’s future with the Milwaukee Bucks.
However, it is not the only big name that attracts attention. Several others ended their seasons and quickly became embroiled in business talks. This is life in the NBA rotation.
There is no untradeable player, and these superstars are the ones to watch the most this offseason.
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Mark J. Terrill / Associated Press
Just hours after Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Milwaukee Bucks made their disappointing second-round exit from the playoffs, the 25-year-old MVP told Yahoo Sports’ Chris Haynes there was no chance he would force his way onto another team.
“It’s not happening,” Antetokounmpo said. “That is not happening.”
And yet here we are. Despite the clearest possible rebuttal directly from the source, we have to start here. Sorry, but we just did.
It’s about which superstars should be under commercial surveillance, and the fact that one of the first post-elimination questions Antetokounmpo faced was about the possibility of a trade means there are at least something to see here.
Skeptics might be right to say that this is all media-driven. Perhaps Antetokounmpo is truly committed to standing his ground with the Bucks despite a second straight year of evidence that his staff and tactical inflexibility are not made for postseason success.
But we’ve seen so many iterations of this scenario before. LeBron James wasn’t going to leave the Cleveland Cavaliers until he did. Most recently, Anthony Davis professed clear intentions to stay with the New Orleans Pelicans. You’ve probably noticed that AD is no longer playing for the Pels.
Superstars change their minds. We know this.
So if Antetokounmpo doesn’t sign the supermax extension when the Bucks slide it across the table, expect speculation to increase. The Golden State Warriors, Toronto Raptors and Miami Heat could try to pounce on a Milwaukee organization that may be only a year away from losing it for nothing.
In all likelihood, Giannis will play the 2020-21 season with Milwaukee, signed or unsigned extension. The Bucks would do well to take one more shot in a title race, and Antetokounmpo is in the rare position of risking next to nothing by pushing his contract decision forward one more year; Kevin Durant, half a decade older and just suffered a devastating Achilles tear, made the most money last offseason.
The money will be there for Antetokounmpo whatever happens.
Still, keep those eyes peeled. A trade is unlikely, but it is far from impossible, and no offseason move would more severely alter the NBA landscape.
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Mike Ehrmann / Associated Press
The departure of former head coach Billy Donovan was a dead informer that after a “look what we found!” competitive season, the Oklahoma City Thunder are looking for a rebuild.
The veteran manager turned down a two-year offer prior to resuming play in the bubble, according to The Athletic. Shams Charania, and you have to assume he would have stayed if OKC had made clear their intentions to hold together a veteran playoff-ready roster.
Chris Paul, 35, does not have to participate in a rebuild. So we can essentially relive the same business speculation that started immediately after his move to the Thunder prior to the 2019-20 season. Now, however, Paul has a less expensive year on his contract and just finished a season in which he proved that he can still elevate a team on his own.
Even though another trip around the sun brought him closer to the end of his career, CP3 is a more attractive business target than a year ago.
the New York Times‘ Marc stein Informed opposing teams believe the Bucks will seek a deal with Paul. It would give Milwaukee the pick-and-roll master it lacks and create the understated looks Antetokounmpo has been missing since becoming a superstar.
Count the Philadelphia 76ers as alleged suitors, too, according to The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor. And don’t forget about the New York Knicks, perennial one-touch scouts who have installed Paul’s former agent, Leon Rose, as team president.
The trade that felt inevitable from the moment Paul joined the Thunder didn’t happen during the year. But it will be this offseason.
You can book this.
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Ashley Landis / Associated Press
Philadelphia 76ers general manager Elton Brand said not looking to trade Joel Embiid or Ben Simmons, citing the intention to make the couple fit together “as long as possible.”
But how long are we really talking? Some might say that after two disappointing playoff races and copious reels of film showing awkward association, enough time has passed. Add to that Embiid’s injury history and persistent inability to get into peak physical shape, and you might excuse the Sixers for wondering if a move is worth pursuing.
Sure, Brand tried to scrap that idea after the 76ers were swept out of the first round. But how often do executives get on the podium after defeat and say, “Man, that was a disaster, right? Get in the bunker because we’re going to bomb this thing!”
It doesn’t happen because there is never any benefit in telegraphing the true intentions when the league smells blood in the water, but teams do pass from the star players. So look at Brand’s comments, which had the added benefit of stating that it will take a hefty offer to sway him, with the necessary skepticism.
In February, ESPN’s Tim Bontemps reported that most league executives believed Embiid, not Simmons, would be the one to leave if Philadelphia chose to break up the band. Today it still feels like the wisest choice due to the great man’s inconsistent level of effort and, yes, again, that health record.
Landing spots are hard to find, but the Sixers could do a lot worse than, say, Andrew Wiggins and a couple of Warriors first-round players.
Just say’…
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Nick Wass / Associated Press
For more than a year, the Washington Wizards have consistently received the message that I do not pretend switch to Bradley Beal. This reluctance apparently stems from a desire to see what Beal will look like alongside John Wall, 30, after the Achilles tear, who has not played an NBA game since December 2018.
Which … why?
It may also have something to do with the fact that Beal only averaged 30.5 points per game in his 26-year season. He is young enough to be the star of Washington for another half decade, though he will struggle to score victories for much of that period with Wall due to raising $ 131.5 million between now and 2022-23.
The Brooklyn Nets I want a third star, and each team with assets earmarked for an Antetokounmpo offering could cut 20 percent and use them to make an alternate play for Beal. If Giannis signs that supermax, Beal would immediately rise to the top of the “potentially obtainable stars” list, driving up the price and making it harder than ever for the Wizards to hold their own.
Beal and Wall i want to play together Again, and while it’s nice to see such a strong brotherly bond, circumstances could change quickly if success doesn’t come to the court. These two never made Washington anything like a title threat. Why believe they can now?
Beal improved substantially during Wall’s absence, but its growth could be offset by Wall’s likely decline. Ultimately, there isn’t much reason to think the Wizards will reach even the modest heights of 2016-17 when they won 49 games (Wall and Beal’s highest total combined) and exited the playoffs in the second round.
If Washington is being realistic, it has to view this offseason as the best time to move Beal. Waiting until the 2020-21 season goes south and Beal understandably starts waving for a move will only have a hard time negotiating the leverage.
Now is the time to strike.
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Rusty Costanza / Associated Press
While not quite at the vaguely defined “superstar” level of the previous four players, Jrue Holiday is close enough to make the cut. They stole a well deserved Defensive pick this year, and you can’t find a teammate or adversary who does not talk about its impact.
More importantly, Holiday feels like a lock to move.
Start at your age, 30, which is way outside the New Orleans Pelicans’ Zion Williamson-Brandon Ingram timeline. Then look at his extremely mobile contract, which will pay him $ 26.1 million next year with a player option of $ 27 million for 2021-22.
Holiday might not be a transformative player when cast in an alpha role, but any veteran team looking for a second or third star to put it on top should be falling on themselves to get a guy who can run an offense. , understand it. 20 points per game if you need it and above all, turn off the most dangerous perimeter threat of the opponent.
ESPN Tim bontemps tagged Holiday as a Warriors target (there they are again), and New Orleans would look pretty good with Wiggins and the second pick in the 2020 draft in his asset stable.
The Dallas Mavericks always have bigger ambitions and should wait to see if they can sign Giannis Antetokounmpo directly in 2021, but they could easily switch to a Christmas hunt if it becomes clear that the Bucks star is not on the cards.
Really, it would be easier to list the teams for which Holiday I would not do it fit perfectly. There may be half a dozen of them, at the most, and the only reason for them to reject you would be because they are too young or not interested in trying to win yet.
This has become a Christmas love letter, but it’s okay. There is much to love.
Statistics courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, and Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Basketball Insiders.
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