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The NBA playoffs move in cycles. Sometimes you are up, sometimes you are depressed. And sometimes it is difficult to know what is real and what is not.
On Friday night, the Houston Rockets beat the Los Angeles Lakers and could have exposed a bigger problem for LeBron James’ team. And the Miami Heat continued to select the Eastern favorites, the Milwaukee Bucks, showing they they could be the real contenders.
Against the Boston Celtics, the Toronto Raptors looked cooked before barely escaping Game 3 with a last-second win. Did that dramatic ending give you the jolt you need to return to this series and potentially move forward?
And the LA Clippers sometimes sleepwalked during their first-round series against the Dallas Mavericks before finally turning the jets on in Game 5. That momentum carried over to Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals, when they dropped the Denver Nuggets. . Have they re-established themselves as the favorites to win it all?
Our experts separate fact from fiction into the four series, telling you whether to buy the hype or avoid getting burned.
MORE: The Rockets are winning playing … defense?
Real or not: the Celtics-Raptors series is on the line
The Celtics have been the best team in three games, but NBA history is littered with squads that started a series with an advantage only to lose control in Games 3 and 4.
A recent example? Last year’s Eastern Conference finals, when Nick Nurse’s Raptors were down 2-0 against the Bucks, only to turn around and win four straight games en route to the NBA championship.
And the year before, in 2018, Brad Stevens’ Celtics lost in the Eastern Conference finals to the Cleveland Cavaliers despite a 2-0 lead in the series driven by a rookie, Jayson Tatum, and a sophomore forward Jaylen Brown.
This year, Toronto has underperformed shooting, while Boston has exceeded their expectations, especially from three-point range.
Who can forget when Marcus Smart basically morphed into Klay Thompson in the second half of Game 2, hitting a dizzying run of 3s and propelling the Celtics to a big comeback win? That was incredible, but also unsustainable.
Meanwhile, the Raptors have hit just 25.9% of their 54 3s in this series when the closest defender has been at least six feet away, according to Second Spectrum. During the regular season, they made 41.2% of those looks, the second-best mark in the league.
Going a step further, you might be surprised which Raptors are fighting the most in these open styles: Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet and Marc Gasol all match 3 of 24. It also looks likely to improve as these guys are just too good to shoot. so bad for a whole series.
I hope Toronto starts making more triples and this series goes to the end. – Kirk Goldsberry
Real or not: the Clippers are now the title favorites
The Lakers and Clippers are still on a late Western Conference collision course, even considering the Lakers’ Game 1 disappointment against Houston. And right now, yes, the Clippers are the favorites to win the Los Angeles bubble battle and, sorry to the East, the NBA championship.
Sure, the Lakers have the best superstar duo in the perennial LeBron James and Anthony Davis over Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.
But the Clippers are the best team overall. They are deeper. They score more points and shoot better. Leonard is already playing at the Finals MVP level. And the Clippers haven’t even achieved a steady pace or reached their full defensive potential.
Seven games in their postseason career, the Clippers have been complete only twice, which has shown their depth and flexibility.
When Patrick Beverley was out and George hit a slump in the playoffs, players like Lou Williams, Marcus Morris Sr., Ivica Zubac, Reggie Jackson and Landry Shamet stepped up. Morris has been everything the Clippers were looking for, providing inside-out scoring, the ability to defend multiple positions and an executor-like toughness.
Despite losing their starting point guard in five of their seven postseason games, the Clippers have averaged the most points (125.7) per game in the postseason, eight more than the Lakers who entered Game 1 against Houston.
As good as James and Davis may have been, the Lakers’ shooters haven’t been as reliable. The Lakers are the worst 3-point team left in the bubble at 33.3%. The Clippers are the best three-point shooting team left in the playoffs with a 40.5% lead.
Defensively, the Clippers haven’t always been on the same page, but they have capped their opponents to 97 points in each of the last two games. They will send out waves of defenders like Beverley, Leonard, George and Morris to wear down James. And they will certainly try to get physical with Davis with Zubac, Montrezl Harrell, Morris and JaMychal Green.
The Clippers have the best bench with Harrell and Williams, the owners of the last three Sixth Man of the Year awards, who have yet to fully click for Harrell to find his groove after a month off the team. And they have a head coach with championship experience in Doc Rivers.
Most importantly, they have Leonard, who might feel better than he has at this point in the postseason after more than four months off.
Leonard is averaging his career highs in the postseason with 32.3 points, 4.9 assists and 56.2% shooting to go with 9.0 rebounds. And it actually has the Clippers looking like favorites to win it all. – Ohm Youngmisuk
Real or not: the Rockets are a nightmare for the Lakers
Real.
The Rockets avoided the “rules” that the Lakers used to build their team. The Lakers focus on two transcendent stars, a great front line, and excellent defense from the inside out. This is a tried and true formula for postseason success, allowing them to control pace and scoring margin, dominate the cup and produce high-efficiency shots while preventing opponents from doing the same.
The Rockets don’t trust that approach. His offense relies on two MVP-winning isolation scorers who can collapse a defense and generate open 3s for his 3-and-D box. James Harden’s high 3-point volume from the dribble and the ability to get into the paint and fouling (11.8 free throws attempted per game during the regular season, leading the NBA) requires a defensive approach, and Russell Westbrook is essentially capable of playing a 5-out version of point guard where the shooters around him create lanes to let him attack the hoop.
The standard defensive strategy built around a great and talented front line just doesn’t slow down this attack and could be a handicap at the 3-point line. When the Rockets’ shots are dropping, they can trade 3-for-2 for a Lakers team lacking 3-point shots and thus make the offensive efficiency that James and Anthony Davis can generate debatable.
At the other extreme, the Rockets’ physical defense that switches teams generates turnovers (17.0 per game in the postseason, first in the NBA) and is surprisingly strong against the posts with defenders who are short but robust.
Game 1 was a textbook illustration of how the Rockets’ strengths can create failures in the Lakers. Harden and Westbrook penetrated at will and created easy shots for the entire team, and PJ Tucker and Robert Covington led a rudimentary defensive effort that forced the Lakers to take difficult shots. – André Snellings
Real or not: the Heat can win the championship
Why not? The East is wide open right now with the No. 1 seed down 3-0 and the No. 2 seed narrowly avoiding the same fate thanks to OG Anunoby’s 3-pointer.
Miami’s 3-0 series lead over Milwaukee is at least as much a product of how well the Heat are playing as it is of the Bucks’ shortcomings. Throughout the playoffs, Miami has seemed a balanced and dangerous team with pieces that fit well on both ends of the floor.
In Jimmy Butler, the Heat have a star who is capable of taking over close games down the stretch, as they did in both Game 1 and Game 3 against the Bucks. At Bam Adebayo, they have a different kind of star who controls games with their defensive versatility and unorthodox way of play. And Goran Dragic has turned back time to give you another dangerous shot creator.
Just as Miami has defended Giannis Antetokounmpo, I’m not sure the Heat will face the Celtics as well if they finally meet in the Eastern Conference finals. The depth of the Celtics’ perimeter builders will test Miami’s ability to hide Duncan Robinson in a lesser threat, particularly if Gordon Hayward can return for that series.
Plus, the Heat’s shots will likely cool down at some point. Based on the location and type of shots, as well as the distance to the nearest defender, Second Spectrum’s quantified shot-throwing measure (qSM) shows that they outperform a quarter more than any playoff team. So I don’t think Miami is the favorite in a possible Finals matchup against the team that wins the West.
Still, the Heat were not the favorites to win this series and here we are. We cannot rule out Miami’s chances of winning a fourth NBA championship. – Kevin Pelton
