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Thanks to Chris Paul’s impressive performance on Monday, we’re going to host another Game 7 on Wednesday night, and this showdown between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets (9 p.m. ET on the ESPN / ESPN app) has it all. from drama-friendly superstars to trainers on the brink.
This game will decide much more than who plays LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday, so let’s dive in and examine the five big questions that will determine the winner of this decisive bubble in the Western Conference playoffs. .
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1. Will James Harden appear?
Harden is the best player in this series. He’s probably the most dominant offensive force in the world, but he also tends to disappear at the most important moments on his team.
We’ve seen it before and it happened again in Game 6 on Monday. With four minutes to go, the Rockets led 98-92 and looked destined to advance to the next round. But after Paul hit a pair of huge 3s to tie the game and the Rockets needed their chef to cook, he took a break instead.
Consider this:
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During the regular season, Harden averaged more than one bunt per possession and nearly six dribbles per touch, following Second Spectrum.
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In those final four minutes on Monday, Harden touched the ball just four times and dribbled 11 times in Houston’s last eight possessions.
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Meanwhile, Russell Westbrook had 10 touches and 60 dribbles in that same span.
At the exact moment that Houston needed its MVP and scoring champion to end this series, he disappeared when the Thunder beat the Rockets 12-2 and stole the victory. If Harden asserts himself in Game 7, Houston will likely advance, but history says it’s a big yes.
2. Will Chris Paul get buckets?
Paul remains one of the most underrated shooters in the NBA, and when he does get going, the Thunder are an extremely dangerous team.
In OKC’s three wins in this series, Paul has been active and efficient as a scorer, averaging 26.7 points per game. In his three losses, Paul’s score has dropped to 16.7 PPG.
CP3 can make winning plays from anywhere on the court at the decisive moment, and he will be motivated to eliminate his old friends from Houston. An aggressive CP3 would seriously help the Thunder get this one out.
3. Will Westbrook stop or attack?
There are two Russell Westbrooks: the one who attacks the defense’s teeth and the one who throws bricks from the perimeter. Which one will we see more of on Wednesday?
Westbrook is one of the most explosive playmakers in the NBA. He can go downhill, attack the rim, and find open shooters, as well as just about any point guard in the league. But in the past two games, he has taken too many jump shots, making only three of his 13 attempts. As someone who used to make a game plan against Westbrook with the San Antonio Spurs, I can tell you that opponents rejoice whenever Brodie gets up for a jump shot, especially in the postseason.
Here’s why: Out of 53 NBA players who have attempted at least 500 jump shots in the regular season and playoffs, Westbrook ranks last in efficiency, with an effective field goal percentage (eFG) of just 39. , 8%. How bad is that? Anthony Davis is ranked 52nd … at 44.7%.
Westbrook is by no means a lost cause. He’s fierce near the bucket, joining Giannis Antetokounmpo and Zion Williamson as the only players to average at least 15 points per game in the paint this season. You need to be more disciplined with your shot selection on this one.
4. Will the Thunder triple?
This one should scare off Rockets fans. The Thunder have been lousy from center throughout the series and have still managed to lead Houston to seven. But as we saw Monday night, when OKC scored nine 3-pointers in the second half, the Thunder can heat up in fits and starts.
Second Spectrum shooting quality metrics reveal that the Thunder have exceeded expectations of 3 points throughout the series, with an eFG almost 7 percentage points worse than expected given the defender’s location and distance. Luguentz Dort (30 percentage points worse than expected) and Dennis Schroder (11 percentage points worse) are the main culprits here.
In a single play sample, OKC’s over-performance on 3s could easily be the difference.
5. Will Houston handle the ball?
The Rockets’ microbead experiment means they get destroyed on the crystal. Since exporting Clint Capela in January, they have ranked last in rebounding percentage, giving their opponents more chances to score. That’s not incredibly surprising, but it makes Houston’s turnover figures highly relevant.
In their three wins in this series, the Rockets averaged 8.3 turnovers per game and won the turnover battle in every win. In the Game 6 loss, Houston handed it over 22 times, tying a season-high, with Westbrook and Harden combining for 12. That can’t happen again.
This game will decide much more than who will stay in the bubble. It’s partially a referendum on last summer’s blockbuster with Paul and Westbrook. And if OKC wins, it could make big changes in Houston.
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