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Will the Los Angeles Lakers complete a championship race Friday night or will the Miami Heat rediscover the formula that gave them their only series win so far?
Which of the Lakers’ All-NBA duo of LeBron James and Anthony Davis has the inside track in the NBA Finals MVP?
On the eve of a possible closing Game 5 (Friday, 9 p.m. ET on ABC), our ESPN Forecast panel of experts addresses the two biggest questions in the face of what the final game could look like inside the league bubble. in Orlando, Florida.
MORE: These LeBron playoff stats are absolutely impressive
Who will win Game 5 of the NBA Finals?
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) projects the Lakers as 58% favorites to win Game 5 and clinch the NBA title, but our panel gives Los Angeles an even bigger lead.
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Los Angeles Lakers: 71%
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Miami Heat: 29%
How the Lakers close the series
Capturing the franchise’s 17th championship will require the Lakers’ full attention to the details that got them so far into the bubble:
The Lakers will need Anthony Davis to cook early. Davis’ impact cannot be measured simply with statistics. Offensively, he is unstoppable when aggressive and not embroiled in foul trouble like in Game 3. Davis at an early aggressive pace could get Bam Adebayo and others into foul trouble themselves. Defensively, Davis is choking, just ask Jimmy Butler. And during Game 4, Davis played 42 minutes. During the six minutes he sat, the Heat outscored the Lakers 22-11.
The Lakers are also in their career prime, and their counterattack is often triggered by their defense. When they get steals, deflections and saves, LeBron James is lethal: He can take a rebound and throw it down the court at a leaking teammate; or you can start a break and score at the rim or lure in defenders from the Heat to find an open shooter.
And when James creates for the shooters, the Lakers’ third star, who has been occupied by the committee, often comes up. Rajon Rondo, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Markieff Morris and Kyle Kuzma have made great plays and hit great shots, and it will take a couple of them again.
“Our third star is whoever has the wide shot,” Alex Caruso said after Game 4.
Finally, James has to be closer than in this scenario. He is 3-0 during his career when in position to clinch the Finals. James knows what a championship with a third franchise, especially one as famous as the Lakers, will do for his legacy. It demands supreme effort and the attention of your peers. To win Game 5 and capture the title, the Lakers will have to follow James’ lead.
– Ohm Youngmisuk
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Jimmy Butler talks about how the team’s confidence never changes, no matter if they are up or down in the series.
How the Heat force a Game 6
The Heat desperately need someone to help Butler on offense, especially if he sees James and Davis as much as he did during Game 4. If Goran Dragic remains out with a foot injury sustained in Game 1, the liability could relapse to Kendrick Nunn. . The rookie guard was just 2-for-11 from the field and missed several open looks in Game 4. Jae Crowder also needs to stretch the floor by scoring some early 3-pointers.
In the end, the Heat could only go as far as Butler takes them, especially with Adebayo still limited due to a neck injury that caused the All-Star big man to miss Games 2 and 3.
Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson have the shooting prowess to help swing the game in Game 5, but to extend the series, Butler must put this group on their backs down the stretch like he did in Miami’s Game 3 win. If the closing minutes of Tuesday’s Game 4 are any indication, look to James to see even more time on Butler if the competition is closed in the final moments.
– Nick Friedell
LeBron or AD for the Finals MVP?
According to ESPN Stats & Information research, James and Davis are on track to become the fourth pair of teammates in NBA history averaging more than 25 points per game while shooting better than 50% in a series. Finals, and the first since Shaquille. O’Neal and Kobe Bryant in 2002.
But which superstar has been the most valuable heading into Game 5? Our panel places the three-time Finals MVP in the driver’s seat for another.
If the Lakers win Game 5, who should to be named Finals MVP?
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LeBron James: 67%
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Anthony Davis: 33%
If the Lakers win Game 5, who will be to be named Finals MVP?
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LeBron James: 83%
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Anthony Davis: 17%
The LeBron Case: Why Lose This King James Award?
Only five times in Finals history has a player led his team in scoring, rebounding and assists while winning the series.
Magic Johnson won the Finals MVP when he became the first player to accomplish the feat in 1987. MVP voters gave Tim Duncan the honor when he accomplished it in 2003. The same happened to James himself in 2012 and 2013 with the Heat and again in 2016 with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
So why would this occasion be any different?
With all due respect to Davis, it’s hard to argue that a man can be the MVP in a series in which his teammate scores more points, catches more rebounds and dispenses more assists. Especially considering the Lakers probably would have swept the Heat if it weren’t for Davis’ night off in Game 3, when foul trouble limited him to 15 points, five rebounds and minus 26 in 33 minutes.
An argument for Davis can be based on his impact on the defensive end, especially during Game 4 when he served as Butler’s main defender and upset the Heat star. James had a performance of 28 points, 12 rebounds and eight assists in that victory. And when the Heat struggled to shoot to two points with a few minutes to go, James made the most critical play of the game, grabbing a rebound, pushing the ball in transition, drawing in three Miami defenders and kicking it to Caldwell-Pope. . in the corner for a 3.
If you want to argue that Davis is the most valuable partner in James’ career, taking down Dwyane Wade or Kyrie Irving a bit, go for it.
But James, the clear Finals MVP, is still king.
– Tim MacMahon
The AD Case: Why The Brow Should Win Their First Finals MVP
Davis is the main reason the Lakers are one win away from beating the Heat for Los Angeles’ first championship since 2010.
It was Davis’s dominance at both ends of the paint that led the Lakers to a 2-0 series lead; Miami had no answer for Davis as he worked his way to 66 points on 26 of 41 shots (63%) to go along with 23 rebounds.
In the fourth game, Davis shone on defense. Coach Frank Vogel turned on him to defend the smaller Butler after Butler’s 40-point triple-double in Game 3, and Davis pinned Butler (who shot 1 of 7 against him in the final three quarters, according to the ESPN Stats & Info data) while blocking four shots.
Yes, between those stretches, Davis struggled in Game 3. Plagued by foul problems, he was limited to 15 points and five rebounds in 33 minutes, a big reason the Heat were able to get their only win so far. But the Finals MVP is for the entire series, and during that span, Davis has been efficient and effective.
According to ESPN Stats & Info, Davis’ 70.1% actual shooting percentage would be third best in a Finals series with at least 50 field goal attempts in the past two decades, behind Ray Allen in 2008 (70.8%). and Klay Thompson last year (70.6%).
Perhaps most impressive is this: In the 37 minutes Davis has played with James on the bench in the Finals, the Lakers are over 11. On the other hand, they have been outscored by two points with Davis resting and James on the court.
Add it up and you get a Davis MVP performance.
– Kevin Pelton
