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Game 3 of the 2020 NBA Finals comes Sunday night, with the Los Angeles Lakers taking on the Miami Heat. The Lakers lead the series by a 2-0 margin after a 10-point victory on Friday, with the Heat aiming to avoid a disastrous 3-0 start on the league’s biggest stage. Miami may be forced to play without key pieces, however, as Goran Dragic (foot) and Bam Adebayo (neck) are listed as doubtful to play.
The start of Game 3 of the Heat vs. Lakers is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Los Angeles is a 9.5-point favorite in late Lakers vs. William Hill’s Heat, while the total number of expected points is 219.5. Before making any Heat vs. Lakers for Game 3, be sure to check out the NBA predictions from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The SportsLine projection model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and has already returned more than $ 5,000 in winnings on its top-rated NBA picks this season. He entered the 2020 NBA Finals with a crushing streak of 61-33 in the top-rated NBA spread picks, and earned nearly $ 2,500 on those picks alone. He’s also an 11-3 sizzle in the top-rated picks since the NBA restart in July. Anyone who has followed him has made huge profits.
Now, the model has set his sights on Lakers vs. Heat. You can visit SportsLine now to see the selections. Here are William Hill’s NBA odds and trends for Heat vs. Lakers:
- Lakers vs Heat spread: Lakers -9.5
- Lakers vs Heat Over-Under: 219.5 points
- Money line between Lakers and Heat: Lakers -475, Heat +380
- LAL: Lakers are 6-2-2 against the spread in the last 10 games
- MIA: Heat are 5-4-1 against the spread in the last 10 games
Why the Lakers can cover
The Lakers are scoring at an incredible rate against Miami, leading to hugely positive results in the first two games. Los Angeles is scoring 1.26 points per possession, up from an already impressive 1.16 points per possession in the playoffs, and the Lakers are also dominating the battle for possession. The Lakers are grabbing 36 percent of available offensive rebounds against the Heat, and Los Angeles boasts a brilliant 2.76-to-1 assist-to-turnovers ratio in the series.
Defensively, the Lakers are also very strong, ranking third in the regular season by allowing just 1.06 points per possession. Los Angeles is tied for third-best shooting efficiency allowed during the playoffs, with the No. 1 mark in blocked shots (5.7 per game) and No. 4 in turnover creation, forcing a yield. 14.9 percent of possessions.
Why the Heat can cover
Miami’s defense has struggled against Los Angeles for two games, but the Heat remain a stellar offensive team. In the playoffs, the Heat are scoring more than 1.13 points per possession, with the best assist rate among teams that advanced to at least the second round of the playoffs. Miami also has the best assist-to-turnovers ratio (1.94-1) in the playoffs, and the Heat have been even better against the Lakers in that category, with one loss for every 2.89 assists.
Miami is also proficient in generating free throws, leading the NBA in free throw rate during the regular season and ranking second in the playoffs. Jimmy Butler is the centerpiece of the team, and he has advanced into the 2020 NBA Finals to this point, averaging 24 points, nine assists, five rebounds and 1.5 steals per game against Los Angeles.
How to make selections between the Lakers and the Heat
SportsLine’s model leans below total, Kyle Kuzma is projected to miss his season-long scoring average and the Heat is projected to operate without two top scorers. It also says that one side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time. You can only choose on SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Lakers? And which side of the spread does it get almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Lakers vs. Heat must be skipped, all from the advanced model that has raised more than $ 5,000 in its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.
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