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Near-normal rainfall conditions due to La Niña will be experienced during the last quarter of 2020 and the first months of 2021, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said on Friday.
During a virtual press conference, the state weather agency said recent oceanic and atmospheric indicators show La Niña to be present in the tropical Pacific.
The sea surface temperature in the central and equatorial Pacific began to cool since June and reached the La Niña threshold in September, according to Ana Liza Solís, head of the Pagasa Climate Impact Prediction and Monitoring Section, Climatology Division and Agrometeorology.
Based on the most recent forecast, a weak to moderate La Niña is likely to persist through the first quarter of 2021, it said.
The Pagasa official highlighted that La Niña is generally associated with above-normal rainfall conditions in most areas of the country during the last quarter of the year and the first months of the following year.
“The rain forecast for October 2020 to March 2021 suggests that most parts of the country will likely receive near-normal rain conditions,” Solís said.
Pagasa said that at least five to eight tropical cyclones are expected to enter and develop in the Philippines Area of Responsibility (PAR) within this period, “most of which are landfall.”
These tropical cyclones can further intensify the northeast monsoon (“amihan”) and could trigger floods, flash floods and rain-induced landslides in susceptible areas, particularly in the eastern sections of the country, which typically receive higher amounts of rain. rain this time of year. year, the meteorological bureau said.
Vicente Malano, also a senior Pagasa official, said that one effect of La Niña is slightly warmer air temperatures by varying degrees from place to place and occasionally due to increased easterly winds.
“Possible adverse impacts also include flash floods and landslides in vulnerable areas and sectors of the country of varying magnitude,” he said.
In a separate interview earlier, Pagasa climate specialist Rosalie Pagulayan told The Manila Times that they were relying on La Niña to bring enough rain to help normalize the water level at Angat Dam, which provides 97 percent of the drinking water to Metro Manila.
Despite rising water levels in recent days, the Angat dam was still below its minimum operating level at 180 meters, Pagulayan said.
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